区域滑坡频度预测和趋势研究
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科技部国际合作项目“大地震诱发滑坡的分布规律及危险性评价方法研究”(2009DFB20196,2008BAK50B04);四川省教育厅重点项目“滑坡对山区建筑的损毁和掩埋机制研究”(09ZA130);西南科技大学科研基金“三峡库区滑坡分布规律研究”(07ZX7133)


Frequency Forecast and Trend of Regional Landsl ides Based on Time Record
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    摘要:

    区域滑坡危险度评价是区域滑坡防灾减灾的重要研究内容。基于区域滑坡过去一定时期的滑坡资料对未来一定时期的滑坡发生频度预测和趋势研究可为区域滑坡危险度进行动态评价。结合三峡库区万州区滑坡资料,对其进行时间记录分析,研究其不同面积等级不同时间范围的Hurst指数经验关系。分别建立了时间范围1980—1990年,1980—1995年和滑坡面积M>1000m2,M>10000m2,M>100000m2的Hurst指数经验关系。根据Hurst指数对其未来5a的滑坡频度的最大涨落范围进行预测。并分析时间相关函数与H值的函数关系,为滑坡发展趋势进行定量预测。研究表明,区域滑坡频度预测可为区域滑坡危险度进行动态评价。

    Abstract:

    The risk degree assessment of regional landslide is a research topic important to the disaster prevention and landslide alleviation. According to the data of landslides, the future landslide frequency and it strend can be forecast and the forecast can dynamically evaluate the risk degree of regional landslides. Based on the landslide data in Wanzhou of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the time records were analyzed and the Hurst index of the different regional ranks and time extensions was st udied. The experimental relationships of the Hurst indexes for the landslide areas of M > > 1 000 m2, M > > 10 000 m2, and M > 100 000 m2 in 1980 —1990 and 1980 —1995 were acquired respectively. According to the Hurst indexes, this method forecasted the maximum fluctuation of landslides in the future 5 years. The function relationship between time correlation and the Hurst indexes was st udied by Fractional Brownian Motion. The relationship forecasted quantitatively the development trend of regional landslides. It is showed that the frequency forecast of regional landslides can dynamically evaluate the risk degree of regional landslides.

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樊晓一.区域滑坡频度预测和趋势研究[J].水土保持通报,2010,(3):92-95

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  • 收稿日期:2009-10-18
  • 最后修改日期:2010-01-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-26
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