渭河上游气候因子变化特征及其与径流量的关系
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国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害风险评估与对策研究”(2013CB430206)


Variation Characteristics of Climatic Factors and Their Relationship with Runoff in Upstream of Weihe River
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    摘要:

    根据渭河上游渭源等12县(区)国家基本(一般)气象站1971—2008年逐月气温、降水量、相对湿度、日照时数、风速等资料及北道水文站1971—2008年径流量资料,采用Mann—Kendall法、气候倾向率等方法,分析了气候因子变化特征及与径流量的关系。结果表明,自1971年以来,渭河上游气温以0.3℃/10a的倾向率上升,气温的突变年为1994年。降水量呈较明显的周期变化,突变点出现在1994年及2004年。潜在蒸散以23mm/10a倾向率增加,突变点出现在1993年。月径流量与降水量基本呈同步变化。年径流量以2.57×108 m3/10a倾向率减少,突变点出现在1991年。径流量与气温、潜在蒸散、降水量的相关性比较显著。气温升高,潜在蒸散增加,地表水支出增多;潜在蒸散加大,降水量减少,地表水收入减少,这是径流量减少的直接原因。

    Abstract:

    The potential evapotranspiration were calculated based on the data of temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,sunshine duration,and wind speed from 12weather stations located in the upstream of the Weihe River and the data of runoff from the Beidao hydrometric station from 1971to 2008.The characteristics of regional climate change and runoff in the upstream were discussed and their relationship was studied using the methods of Mann-Kendall and climate inclination rate.Results showed that the mean temperature had increased by 0.3℃every ten years in the area since 1971and the catastrophic point was in 1994.Precipitation varied with periodicity and its catastrophic points were in 1994and 2004.The potential evapotranspiration had increased by 23mm every ten years in the area since 1971and catastrophe point was in 1993.This indicated that the monthly runoff varied with precipitation.The runoff had decreased by 2.57×108 m3 in every ten years and catastrophic point was in 1991.The runoff had significant correlations with temperature,precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and the model for simulating runoff with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was set up.Because of the raised temperature,potential evapotranspiration increased and precipitation decreased,which caused the expenditure of surface water increased and the income of surface water decreased in the upstream.The runoff in the upstream of the Weihe River decreased in recent years.The dropping of runoff in the upstream would bring about stress for water resource safety in the downstream of the Weihe River.

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蒲金涌,张强.渭河上游气候因子变化特征及其与径流量的关系[J].水土保持通报,2013,(3):95-99

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  • 收稿日期:2012-05-10
  • 最后修改日期:2012-07-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-12
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