城市扩张用地社会经济效益与生态环境效益动态关系研究——以南京市为例
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国家自然科学基金项目“长江三角洲地区城市群建成区扩张动态、机制与效应研究”(40801062);江苏省国土资源科技项目(201026)


Dynamic Relationships Between Socio-economic and Eco-environmental Benefits of Urban Expansion Land Use
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    摘要:

    基于协整理论,采用改进熵值法、误差修正模型、方差分解等方法,评价了1990—2008年南京市用地扩张的社会经济效益和生态环境效益,分析了二者的动态关系。研究结果表明:(1)南京市两类效益指数均呈上升趋势,且均为一阶单整序列;(2)两类用地效益之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到45.36%;(3)生态环境效益是社会经济效益的单向格兰杰原因,而反向关系得不到证实;(4)生态环境效益是土地利用综合效益提高的主要推动力,20a后生态环境效益对两类效益的解释水平分别高达85.27%和93.89%。因此,应充分发挥生态环境效益的推动作用,采用长期和短期相结合的策略:即短期内提高生态环境污染的管理效率;长期内顺应经济增长方式转变制度,大力发展低碳经济和绿色科技,走可持续发展道路。

    Abstract:

    This paper evaluated the socio-economic and eco-environmental benefits of land use during the urban expansion period of Nanjing City from 1990to 2008.Subsequently,their dynamic relationships were discussed based on the theory of co-integration.Methods of improved entropy,error correction model and variance decomposition were employed.Results showed that both of the indicators of socio-economic and eco-environmental benefits were increased and were integrated of order one.There existed an equilibrium relationship between them in long term,whereas things were different in short term.The magnitude of the adjustment from short-term fluctuation to long-term equilibrium was 45.36%.The eco-environmental benefits were the Granger's cause for socio-economic benefits,but the contrary was not true.The eco-environmental benefits were the main driving force that can be used to improve the comprehensive benefit of land use.The proportions of socio-economic and eco-environmental benefits could be represented as 85.27% and 93.89%,respectively,in twenty years later.Therefore,it is necessary to play the important role of eco-environment benefits by taking long-term and short-term strategies completely.On the one hand,the efficiency of environmental pollution management should be improved in the short term.On the other hand,the road of sustainable development should be taken in the long term,through conforming to the system of economic growth mode transformation and vigorously developing the low-carbon economy and green technology.

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张俊凤,徐梦洁,郑华伟,刘友兆.城市扩张用地社会经济效益与生态环境效益动态关系研究——以南京市为例[J].水土保持通报,2013,(3):306-311

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  • 收稿日期:2012-03-11
  • 最后修改日期:2012-07-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-12
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