基于耕地压力指数的山东省粮食生产动态分析与预测
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贵州大学人文社科重点特色学科重大项目“农村土地资本化研究”(GDZT12007)


Development of Grain Production and Its Prediction in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    [目的] 对山东省1994-2014年的粮食生产进行动态分析,并对2015-2025年的粮食安全状况进行预测,为该省制定合理的粮食生产规划和农业经济政策提供科学依据。[方法] 从耕地压力角度出发,采用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,通过对文献资料进行搜集、整理与统计,并运用Logistic人口预测模型和灰色GM(1,1)模型开展研究。[结果](1)山东省1994-2014年中的大多数年份耕地压力指数大于1,处于粮食不安全状态;(2)1994-2014年耕地压力指数呈现出缓慢上升趋势,且其变化具有明显的周期性,每个波动周期大约为4~5a;(3)未来10a粮食产量、年末人口总数呈增加的态势,而耕地面积、人均耕地面积、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数均呈现出降低趋势,且大多数年份的耕地压力指数值小于1。[结论] 通过大力发展粮食经济,未来10a山东省粮食生产与供给都将处于安全状态。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The grain production status in Shandong Province during 1994-2014 and the food security during 2015-2025 were studied to provide scientific basis for making reasonable production planning and agricultural economic policy. [Methods] Models of the cultivated land pressure index based on minimum per capita arable land area, logistic population prediction model and grey model〔GM(1,1)〕 were used to carry out the research. [Results] (1) The cultivated land pressure index was greater than 1 in many years during 1994-2014 in Shandong Province, implying that a state of food insecurity existed. (2) Cultivated land pressure index in 1994-2014 showed a slow periodical upward trend with a 4~5 a cycle. (3) In the next 10 years, grain output and total population will present a growth trend; while indices of arable land, arable land per capita, the minimum per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land pressure index are predicted having a downward trend. And the cultivated land pressure index value will be less than 1 in most years. [Conclusion] Through expanding food economy, grain production and food supply will be in a safe state in the next 10 a in Shandong Province.

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李福夺,杨兴洪.基于耕地压力指数的山东省粮食生产动态分析与预测[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(4):220-226

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  • 收稿日期:2015-10-07
  • 最后修改日期:2015-10-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-09-21
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