近50年来甘肃省河西中部地区径流变化特征及驱动因素
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甘肃省自然科学基金项目“基于GIS和RS的城市土地利用动态演化与模拟研究”(148RJZA028);兰州交通大学青年科学基金项目(2013002)


Variation Characteristics of Runoff and Its Driving Forces in Recent 50 Years in Middle Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province
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    摘要:

    [目的] 对近50 a来甘肃省河西中部地区径流变化特征及驱动因素进行分析,为该地区生态建设和社会经济的可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法] 应用研究区径流数据,以年际极值比和变差系数反映径流的年际变化特征,运用数理统计方法开展研究。[结果](1)研究区年内径流呈单峰型,夏季所占比例最高,冬季最低;该区径流以降水量补给为主。(2)年均径流近年来呈减少趋势,丰枯变化较小,但与其海拔呈正相关;从西至东由减少趋势逐渐减弱至增加趋势明显。(3)年均径流突变性特征一致性较差,年际变化具有多尺度循环振荡周期,主要存在8和24 a明显准周期,其中8 a波动最强,其径流先后经历了“多-少-多-少……”13次循环交替,2010年之后径流再次减少,可能持续到2018年。(4)气温升高和降水量增加对该区径流变化产生影响,而人类活动对其影响微弱。[结论] 研究区径流以降水补给为主,近50 a其丰枯变化较小,从东到西由增加趋势转变为减少趋势,突变性特征一致性较差,具有8 a显著周期,气温和降水主导径流变化。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The variation characteristics of runoff and its driving factors in the past 50 years in the middle area of Hexi corridor in Gansu Province were analyzed to provide a scientific basis for the ecological construction and the sustainable development of social economy. [Methods] Based on runoff data in the study area, the characteristics of the inter-annual variability of runoff were reflected with annual extreme value ratio and coefficient of variation, and other statistics methods. [Results] (1) The distribution of the runoff showed an unimodal type in the middle area of Hexi region. The proportion was the highest in summer, and it was the lowest in winter. The runoff mainly was sourced from precipitation. (2) The runoff had a decreasing trend in recent years, and the change of hydrologic characteristic was positively correlated with elevation. The annual average runoff had a reducing trend and then gradually became an increasing trend from the west to the south. (3) The mutation characteristics of the annual runoff was poor consistent in the middle of the Hexi region and inter-annual variability of the annual runoff had a characteristic of multi-scale oscillation. The fluctuation had a quasi-cycle obviously in 8 a and 24 a, and the quasi-cycle in 8 a was more obvious, whereof 13 cycles as“much-less-much-less…”were observed. The runoff reduced after 2010, and might increase in 2018. (4) Runoff was both affected by the increase of temperature and precipitation, while was little affected by human activity. [Conclusion] Runoff is mainly supplied by precipitation in the study area. The changes were smaller in the past nearly 50 years. The annual average runoff had a reducing trend and then gradually became an increasing trend from the west to the south, and had a strongest quasi-cycle obviously in 8 a. Temperature and rainfall are the two main causes of runoff change.

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张立峰,闫浩文,段焕娥,张明旺,杨树文.近50年来甘肃省河西中部地区径流变化特征及驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(2):57-64,74

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  • 收稿日期:2016-04-20
  • 最后修改日期:2016-09-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-05-10
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