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甘肃省近50年暴雨变化特征及其灾害效应
胡倩, 岳大鹏, 赵景波, 马爱华
陕西师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 陕西 西安 710119
摘要:
[目的]研究甘肃省近50 a来暴雨的时空变化及灾害特征,为该区的暴雨气候预测和防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。[方法]根据甘肃省29个气象站1968-2017年逐日降水资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Morlet小波变换等方法进行研究。[结果]①陇东地区为甘肃省暴雨高值高频中心区,陇南地区次之,河西走廊和陇西地区最低。②近50 a甘肃省暴雨日数总体呈上升趋势,7月最为显著,但5月呈下降趋势。③近50 a甘肃省暴雨量经历了少-少-多-少-多的年代际变化过程,除80-90年代是秋季暴雨量贡献较大以外,其余年代均是夏季暴雨量贡献较大。④甘肃省暴雨日数与暴雨量的振荡周期一致,存在8和3 a两个短周期,暴雨日数的8 a周期比3 a周期明显,暴雨量反之。研究期内甘肃省暴雨日数没有明显突变,暴雨量在1977年发生了突变。⑤近50 a暴雨变化的原因可能是受到全球变暖和东亚季风增强的影响。[结论]甘肃省近50 a暴雨的增加造成了洪灾、旱灾的增加,应对甘肃地区加强暴雨气候监测以及防灾救灾工作。
关键词:  暴雨  空间分布  时间演变  周期  突变  灾害  甘肃省
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.04.011
分类号:P954;K903
基金项目:国家自然科学项目"陕北黄土高原典型小流域近500年来侵蚀产沙量变化研究:以庞家沟流域为例"(41071012)
Characteristics and Disasters of Rainstorms in Gansu Province in Recent 50 Years
Hu Qian, Yue Dapeng, Zhao Jingbo, Ma Aihua
College of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710119, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The spatial and temporal variation characteristics and disasters of rainstorms in Gansu Province in recent 50 years were studied in order to provide a scientific basis for the rainstorm climate prediction, disaster prevention and reduction in this area.[Methods] Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations in Gansu Province from 1968 to 2017, linear trend, Mann-Kendall abrusttest test, Morlet wavelet transform and other methods were used.[Results] ① Longdong area was the high-frequency center of heavy rain in Gansu Province, followed by Longnan, and the lowest in Hexi Corridor and Longxi area. ② Rainstorm days in Gansu Province showed an upward trend in the recent 50 years and increased significantly in July, but decreased in May. ③ The rainstorm in Gansu Province experienced less-less-more-less-less progress in the recent 50 years. Most of the interdecadal variations, except for the 1980s and 1990s, were greatly influenced by the autumn rainstorm, the other years were greatly influenced by the summer rainstorm. ④ The oscillation periods of rainstorm days and rainstorm volume in Gansu Province were almost the same. There were two short periods of 8-year and 3-year, the 8-year cycle of rainstorm days was more obvious than the 3-year cycle, and rainstorm volume was the opposite. During the study period, there was no abrupt change in the rainstorm days. The rainstorm volume was an abrupt change point in 1977. ⑤ The change of rainstorm in recent 50 years might be due to global warming and the intensification of East Asian monsoon.[Conclusion] The increase of rainstorms in Gansu Province in recent 50 years caused more floods and droughts. It was necessary to strengthen the rainstorm monitoring and disaster prevention and relief work in Gansu Province.
Key words:  rainstorm  spatial distribution  time evolution  cycle  abrut change  disasters  Gansu Province