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固原市原州区生态环境与经济系统的耦合协调发展
李静1, 马亚亚1, 王杰2, 刘国彬3, 张超2
1.西北农林科技大学 林学院, 陕西 杨凌 712100;2.西北农林科技大学 水土保持研究所, 陕西 杨凌 712100;3.中国科学院 水利部 水土保持研究, 陕西 杨凌 712100
摘要:
[目的] 构建宁夏回族自治区固原市原州区生态环境系统和社会经济系统之间的耦合度和耦合协调度模型,以期为区域的协调发展调控提供科学依据。[方法] 基于固原市原州区2002-2016年生态环境和社会经济的数据,构建原州区区域生态系统指标评价体系,采用熵值赋权法计算各个评价指标的权重以及综合评价指数,通过建立耦合度、耦合协调度模型和灰色预测度模型,得到并预测该区域生态环境系统和社会经济系统的耦合度和耦合协调度发展趋势以及耦合协调类型。[结果] 2002-2016年,固原市原州区社会经济系统评价指数稳定上升,受生态环境压力的影响,生态系统综合评价指数呈现先下降后波动上升的趋势,前者的发展速度快于后者;耦合度和耦合协调度不断上升,耦合协调类型从经济滞后中度失调型发展为生态环境滞后的濒临失调型;通过模型预测,2017-2025年生态环境系统和社会经济系统之间耦合度及耦合协调度将逐渐升高,耦合协调类型会不断向理想状态发展。[结论] 固原市原州区由于经济发展水平快于生态环境建设力度,从而制约了该区域整体的协调发展。因此为实现原州区区域生态系统的可持续发展。还需大力加强对生态环境的建设。
关键词:  生态  经济  耦合  灰色模型  原州区
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.01.033
分类号:X24
基金项目:十三五国家重点研发项目"黄土高原水土流失治理与生态产业协同发展技术集成与模式"(2016YFC0501707);国家自然科学基金项目"氮肥施用对黄土丘陵区白羊草根-土界面碳流过程的影响机制分析"(41771554)。
Coordinated Development of Ecological Environment and Economic Systems in Yuanzhou District, Guyuan City
Li Jing1, Ma Yaya1, Wang Jie2, Liu Guobin3, Zhang Chao2
1.College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shannxi 712100, China;2.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shannxi 712100, China;3.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Science & Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shannxi 712100, China
Abstract:
[Objective] A coupling degree and coupling-coordination degree model between the ecological environment system and the socio-economic system in Yuanzhou District, Guyuan City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was established to provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development and regulation of the region.[Methods] Based on ecological environment and socio-economic data for 2002-2016 in Yuanzhou District, an index evaluation system for the regional ecosystem of Yuanzhou District was constructed. The entropy method was used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index and the comprehensive evaluation index. By establishing the coupling degree, coupling coordination degree model, and gray prediction model, the development trend of the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the eco-environmental and socio-economic systems, and the type of coupling coordination, were obtained and predicted.[Results] From 2002 to 2016, the evaluation index of the social economic system in Yuanzhou District steadily increased. Due to the impact of pressure on the ecological environment, the comprehensive evaluation index of the ecosystem first had a tendency of decline, and then fluctuated. The economic system developed faster than the ecologic system. The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree were rising, and the type of coupling coordination developed from the moderately dysfunctional type of economic lag to the end, a dysfunctional type of ecological environment. Through model prediction, the coupling degree and coupling coordination between the ecological environment system and the socio-economic system was projected to gradually increase from 2017 to 2025. This type of coupling coordination would continue to evolve toward an ideal state.[Conclusion] The economic development of Yuanzhou District is faster than the construction of ecological environment, which restricts the overall coordinated development of the region. Therefore, to achieve sustainable development of the regional ecosystem in Yuanzhou District, it is necessary to strengthen construction of the ecological environment.
Key words:  ecological  economic  coupling  grey model  Yuanzhou District