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基于土地利用变化的河北省坝上地区景观生态风险评价
刘孟竹1, 王彦芳2, 裴宏伟1
1.河北建筑工程学院 市政与环境工程系, 河北 张家口 075000;2.河北地质大学, 河北 石家庄 050031
摘要:
[目的] 对河北省坝上地区近40 a来的土地利用动态变化和生态风险进行分析评价并对未来趋势作出预测,为该地区生态建设和治理、可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法] 基于坝上地区1980—2018年5期土地利用数据以及通过土地转移矩阵、空间相关性分析等方法揭示和预测该区1980—2026年的土地利用变化特征并评估该区生态风险水平。[结果] ①整个研究期间,坝上地区土地利用类型以耕地为主,所占比例近50%,其中,1980—2018年,耕地、林地扩张面积均超过300 km2,草地减少近616.60 km2,水域面积缩减36.04%,其中耕地、林地、草地之间的互相流转程度较为剧烈,空间变化上表现为各地类的重心在2000—2010年明显迁移。②1980—2026年,坝上地区6个时期内生态风险值全局空间自相关Moran's I指数均在0.500左右,其空间分布表现出较高的趋同集聚性。③近40 a来,坝上生态风险水平升至为高风险级,其区域增加了123.22 km2,较高风险区域分布在城镇地区,据CA-Markov模型预测,未来坝上地区中等及中等以上风险区域持续扩张,丰宁县和围场县将分别出现小规模高风险区和较高风险区。[结论] ①近40 a来坝上地区草地退化严重,水域面积显著减少,原因系安固里淖干涸所致。②该区生态风险水平与土地格局分布具有较强相关性,且在未来会继续升高。
关键词:  坝上地区  CA-Markov模型  土地利用  生态风险  空间自相关
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.04.041
分类号:X826;F301.2;X171.1
基金项目:张家口市科技局人才专项“河北建筑工程学院院士工作站建设项目”(201903Y);国家自然科学基金项目(41701017);河北省科技厅重点研发计划项目(18397002D);河北省教育厅青年拔尖人才项目(BJ2018027);河北省科技厅高水平人才团队建设项目(199A4201H)。
Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment in Bashang Area of Hebei Province Based on Land Use Change
Liu Mengzhu1, Wang Yanfang2, Pei Hongwei1
1.Department of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Architecture, Zhangjiakou, Hebei 075000, China;2.Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050031, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The land use change and ecological risk in recent four decades in Bashang area of Hebei Province were investigated to provide scientific basis for local ecological construction and management, as well as sustainable development in this region. [Methods] Land transfer matrix and the spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to reveal the land use change and evaluate the level of ecological risk of Bashang area, based on land-use data at five stages during 1980—2018. [Results] ① Cultivated land was the main type of land use, covering half of the study area. During the years of 1980—2018, cultivated land and forest land expanded by more than 300 km2, while the area of grassland decreased by 616.60 km2 and waterland narrowed roughly by 36.04%. Among them, cultivated land, forest land and grassland showed a relatively strong mutual transfer, and the spatial change showed that the center of gravity of each category was obviously transferred from 2000 to 2010. ② From 1980 to 2026, the value of Moran's I index all approached nearly 0.500 in each stage, which indicated that the spatial distribution of ecological risk presented higher convergence and agglomeration. ③ In recent four decades, the ecological risk level of Bashang area had risen to high risk level, with an increase of 123.22 km2 and higher risk region mainly distributed in urban areas. According to CA-Markov model, the medium and above risk areas in Bashang area would continue to expand and Fengning County and Weichang County would appear small-scale high-risk areas and higher-risk areas. [Conclusion] ① In the past 40 years, the grassland in Bashang area had degraded seriously and the main reason for the significant decrease of water area was the drying up of the Angulinao Lake. ② The level of ecological risk in Bashang area had a strong correlation with the distribution of land pattern, and would continue to rise in the future.
Key words:  Bashang area  CA-Markov model  land use  ecological risk  spatial autocorrelation