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基于CA-Markov与InVEST模型的吉林省生态系统服务价值模拟及预测
刘家福1, 席兰兰1, 张尧1, 张柏2
1.吉林师范大学 旅游与地理科学学院, 吉林 四平 136000;2.中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所, 吉林 长春 130102
摘要:
[目的] 分析与预测吉林省土地利用演变过程,衡量其对生态系统服务价值的影响程度,为吉林省生态环境保护与改善方针策略的制定提供理论依据。[方法] 基于吉林省2000,2010和2017年3期土地利用数据,采用CA-Markov模型对2024年的土地利用格局进行模拟预测,利用InVEST模型分析吉林省2000-2024年生态系统服务价值变化及生境质量时空演变特征。[结果] ①2000-2024年吉林省耕地、草地、建设用地面积持续增长,林地、水域和未利用土地面积有所减少。②2000-2024年生态系统服务总价值呈下降趋势,其中森林的生态系统服务价值量最大,水文和气候调节是主要的生态服务功能。③吉林省生境质量在空间分布上呈中西部低,东部高的特征,质量在不断退化,城市周边和各大水系流域沿岸退化严重。[结论] 吉林省中部及西部地区生境质量下降较为严重,应注重城市周边及水系的保护与合理利用。
关键词:  土地利用  CA-Markov  生态系统服务价值  InVEST模型
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.06.022
分类号:F129.9
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“暴雨洪灾冲击下的松花江流域乡村脆弱性及韧性机制研究”(41977411),“基于星—机—地多源遥感的湿地植物群落冠层氮素含量反演”(41771383);吉林师范大学科研项目(研创新201946)
A Study on Simulation and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Jilin Province Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Model
Liu Jiafu1, Xi Lanlan1, Zhang Yao1, Zhang Bai2
1.College of Tourism and Geographic Sciences, Jilin Normal University, Siping, Jilin 136000, China;2.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agro-ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The impacts of the process of land use evolution on ecosystem service value in Jilin Province were analyzed and predicted in order to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of ecological environment protection and improvement policies and strategies in Jilin Province.[Methods] Based on the land use data of Jilin Province in 2000, 2010 and 2017, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the land use pattern in 2024, and InVEST model was used to analyze the change of ecosystem service value and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2024.[Results] ① From 2000 to 2024, the area of cultivated land, grassland and construction land increased continuously, while the area of woodland, water area and unused land decreased. ② From 2000 to 2024, the total value of ecosystem services showed a downward trend, among which forest ecosystem services value was the largest, and hydrological and climate regulation were the main ecological service functions. ③ The spatial distribution of habitat quality in Jilin Province was low in the central and western regions and high in the east. The quality of the habitat is deteriorating continuously, and the degradation is serious around the city and along the main river basins.[Conclusion] The habitat quality in the central and western regions of Jilin Province has declined seriously, thus, more attention should be paid on the protection and rational utilization of city surrounding zones and water systems.
Key words:  land use  CA-Markov  ecosystem service value  InVEST model