[Objective] The quantity and distribution characteristics of ecological land in the karst area during 2000—2020 were analyzed and the changes in ecological land based on multi-scenario decisions in the future were predicted to seek the optimal scenario and coordinate ecological protection and development, in order to provide a theoretical foundation for the future land space development and protection, ecological space management and regional eco-economic sustainable development of the study area. [Methods] The land use transfer matrix and dynamic degree model was used to analyze the land-use change characteristics at Ningyuan County, Hunan Province. The FLUS (future land use simulation) model was used to simulate and predict the quantity and distribution of ecological land under different scenario decisions in 2030. [Results] ① Cultivated land was mainly concentrated in the central area of Ningyuan County, and the original ecological land of forest land and grassland was mainly distributed in the north, south, and west. Among the natural ecological land in 2020, forest land accounted for 56.69%, grassland for 12.85%, and water area for 0.60%, and semi-artificial ecological land of cultivated land, accounted for 27.80%. ② Under the ecological protection priority scenario, the forest land, grassland, and water area increased by 15.12, 37.35, and 23.67 hm², respectively, compared with those in 2020. ③ The policy had a significant regulating effect on the change of ecological land in the karst area, and socioeconomic development had a significant impact on water area increase. [Conclusion] The proportion of original ecological land in Ningyuan County is as high as 70.14%. The priority scenario of ecological protection ensures that ecological land is not occupied by non-ecological land at the maximum extent. This scenario is suitable for the urban development of Ningyuan County or the similar areas under the goal of building a forest city.