基于ARIMA模型的生态足迹模拟与预测
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山东省自然科学基金项目"鲁中南流域地表碳库和碳截流遥感定量评估及土地利用优化模拟"(Y2008H03);山东省科技攻关项目"耕地保护区地表有机碳通量遥感监测及其优化控制模拟"(2009GG10006006)


Simulation and Prediction of Ecological Footprint Based on ARIMA Model
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    [目的] 将现代计量学上普遍应用的自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)引入生态足迹分析,寻求动态预测结果。[方法] 以山东省济宁市微山县为案例,对其1995-2010年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行估算,预测该县2010-2015年的生态足迹和生态承载力变化趋势。[结果] 2011与2012年真实数据检验结果显示,ARIMA模拟模型的预测误差仅为6.12%和4.89%。[结论] 基于ARIMA的生态足迹动态模拟模型具有较高的准确性和适用性。

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    [Objective] To apply the autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) that had been generally used in the modern metrology to ecological footprint analysis.[Methods] Taking Weishan County in Shandong Province as the study area, the per capita ecological footprint and the per capita ecological carrying capacity from 1995 to 2010 were computed firstly, then the trend of per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity from 2011 to 2012 were forecasted based on the computed results.[Results] Tested by the actual data in 2011 and 2012, the prediction error of ARIMA model was only 6.12% and 4.89%.[Conclusion] The ARIMA model had high accuracy and good applicability in the prediction of ecological footprint.

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董晓晓,李玉环,王静,陈瑜琦.基于ARIMA模型的生态足迹模拟与预测[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):143-147,152

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2013-11-18
  • 最后修改日期:2014-01-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-04-05
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