[目的] 探究气候变化对植被覆盖变化的驱动机制，可为揭示区域乃至全球植被覆盖动态变化及其与气候变化之间的响应机制提供依据。[方法] 以MODIS NDVI，SRTM DEM，降水和气温为数据源，运用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall显著性检验法、R/S分析法和Pearson相关分析法等数学分析方法，结合ANUSPLIN气象插值模型，研究2001—2019年京津冀地区植被NDVI时空演变特征及预测未来变化趋势，并探究植被NDVI与降水和气温最大相关关系及时滞效应。[结果] ①2001—2019年京津冀地区植被NDVI整体呈波动上升趋势，上升速率为0.002 2/a，且未来植被NDVI呈改善趋势的面积略小于呈退化趋势的面积；②降水和气温对京津冀地区植被生长以正向促进作用为主，且降水对植被生长的作用强度高于气温；③植被NDVI对降水变化的滞后期略长于气温，京津冀地区植被生长受前3月的降水和前1月的气温影响最大。[结论] 在林业生态工程实施背景下，2001—2019年京津冀地区植被覆盖整体呈改善态势，尤以西北部为著；植被NDVI与降水和气温相关关系呈现出明显的地域差异，且植被生长相对降水和气温变化存在一定的滞后效应。
[Objective] The dynamic variation of vegetation and its corresponding driving mechanism (i.e., climate change) were explored to provide a basis for understanding how the regional and global dynamic variations of vegetation respond to climate change.[Methods] The moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series along with digital elevation model (DEM) data and monthly precipitation/temperature data were used for a Theil-Sen Median analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, R/S analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, and ANUSPLIN model. The spatiotemporal variation of vegetation and its future trend were analyzed, and the relation of the NDVI with precipitation and temperature was explored. Furthermore, the time-lag effects of the variation of vegetation in response to climate variables in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2001 to 2019 were investigated.[Results] ① During the period from 2001 to 2019, the vegetation cover increased in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at a rate of 0.002 2/a. The area that is expected to degrade in the future exceeded that of the area that was expected to improve. ② Furthermore, both precipitation and temperature exerted positive effects on vegetation growth in most areas, although the response of vegetation growth to changes in precipitation was more pronounced than that of temperature. ③ The lag time for the maximum response of vegetation growth to precipitation was longer than that of temperature. More specifically, the maximum vegetation cover was associated with the precipitation of the previous 3 months and the temperature of the previous one month.[Conclusion] Due to the implementation of ecological restoration projects, the vegetation cover improved significantly in the Beijing-Tianjin-and Hebei region from 2001 to 2019, especially in the northwestern area. The relation of the NDVI with precipitation and temperature exhibited regional characteristics, and vegetation growth showed obvious lag-time effects to changes in climate variables.