基于灰色关联理论的三峡库区2015-2019年生态安全时空演变特征研究
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国家社会科学基金重点项目“长江经济带生态保护和高质量发展的非协调性耦合识别与协同机制创新研究”(20AJY005);重庆市教委科技项目(KJQN201904002);重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(19SKGH129);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN201901143)


Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Ecological Security in Three Gorges Reservoir Area During 2015-2019 Based on Grey Relational Theory
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    [目的] 研究三峡库区生态安全变化趋势与影响因素,为推动三峡库区生态安全发展提供科学依据。[方法] 基于压力—状态—响应模型(PSR)建立生态安全指标体系,采用熵值法、层次分析法对2015—2019年的生态安全状况做出评价。利用灰色系统理论,构建了灰色关联度的评价模型,并根据三峡库区2015—2019年数据,定量评价该区生态安全动态变化情况,并采用灰色聚类法加以验证。[结果] ①2015—2019年库区生态安全关联度较高,单位土地面积农药施用量、植被减少表土损失量、生态服务指数、环保投资比等的关联度均高于0.7。②2015—2019年库区生态安全部分地区综合评价指数呈上升趋势,部分地区综合评价指数略有下降。③三峡库区的PSR指数集聚特征随时间变化并不明显,H-H集聚区主要集中于主城区,符合经济发展一般规律;L-L集聚区主要集中于边缘地区的夷陵、秭归等区县;L-H和H-L集聚区主要集中分布于L-L以及H-H集聚区的周边区县。[结论] 三峡库区的生态安全受部分指标影响显著,应从影响指标入手推进三峡库区生态安全建设,且三峡库区的区县之间存在较大差异。因此,充分发挥部分区县的带动作用是建成三峡库区生态安全的关键。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The trend and influencing factors of ecological security in the Three Gorges Reservoir area were studied in order to provide a scientific basis for promoting the development of ecological security in this area.[Methods] Based on pressure-status-response (PSR) model, an ecological security index system was established, and the ecological security status during 2015-2019 was evaluated by the entropy method and the analytic hierarchy process. According to data from the Three Gorges Reservoir area during 2015-2019, the dynamic changes of ecological security in this area were revealed by quantitative evaluation, and verification was performed using the grey clustering method.[Results] ① From 2015 to 2019, the correlation degree of ecological security in the reservoir area was greater than 0.7 for factors such as the application amount of pesticides per unit land area, the amount of topsoil loss caused by vegetation reduction, the ecological service index, and the environmental protection investment ratio. ② From 2015 to 2019, the comprehensive evaluation index of ecological security in some areas of the reservoir area showed an upward trend, while the comprehensive evaluation index of some areas decreased slightly. ③ The agglomeration characteristics of the PSR index in the Three Gorges Reservoir area did not change significantly with time. The high-high agglomeration area was mainly concentrated in the main urban area, which was in line with the general law of economic development. The low-low agglomeration areas were mainly concentrated in Yiling, Zigui, and other counties in the marginal areas. The low-high and high-low agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in the counties surrounding the low-low and high-high agglomeration areas.[Conclusion] The ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir area was significantly affected by some indicators. Ecological security construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir area should be promoted based on the important impact factors, and there are great differences between the districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Giving full attention and consideration to the leading role of some districts and counties is the key to the construction of an ecological security system in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

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杨光明,桂青青,陈也,罗垚,杨芸瑞.基于灰色关联理论的三峡库区2015-2019年生态安全时空演变特征研究[J].水土保持通报,2021,41(5):348-356

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  • 收稿日期:2021-04-08
  • 最后修改日期:2021-05-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25