基于FLUS模型的喀斯特地区生态用地时空变化及多情景预测——以湖南省宁远县为例
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X171.1

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广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划2020年度学科共建项目“粤港澳大湾区高产出耕地的生态风险识别、评价与防控研究”(GD20XYJ32);广东省教育科学“十三五”规划2020年度研究项目(2020GXJK199); 2020年广东省研究生教育创新计划项目(2020JGXM085); 2020年度广东省高等教育教学改革项目(462);广州大学2021年校内科研项目(研究类)(YJ2021007)


Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecological Land in Karst Area Based on FLUS Model —A Case Study in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province
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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析近2000—2020年喀斯特地区生态用地数量分布特征,预测未来多情景下生态用地变化情况,寻求协调生态保护与发展建设的最优情景,为研究区未来国土空间开发保护,生态空间管控以及区域生态经济可持续发展提供科学参考。[方法] 采用土地利用转移矩阵和动态度分析湖南省宁远县土地利用变化特点,基于FLUS模型,模拟预测2030年不同情景下生态用地数量及分布。[结果] ①耕地主要集中在宁远县中部区域,林地、草地原生态用地主要分布在南北两端和西部。2020年,原生态用地中,林地所占比例为56.69%,草地所占比例为12.85%,水域为0.60%,半人工生态用地即耕地所占比例为27.80%。②多情景模拟结果显示:生态优先情景下,宁远县原生态用地中林地、草地、水域分别较2020年增加了15.12,37.35,23.67 hm2。③政策对喀斯特地区生态用地变化有着极大的导向作用,社会经济发展对水域的增加有显著影响。[结论] 宁远县原生态用地所占比例高达70.14%。生态保护优先情景能够最大程度保障生态用地不被非生态用地侵占。在以建设森林城市为目标导向的情况下,宁远县及同类地区适宜采用该情景进行城市发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The quantity and distribution characteristics of ecological land in the karst area during 2000—2020 were analyzed and the changes in ecological land based on multi-scenario decisions in the future were predicted to seek the optimal scenario and coordinate ecological protection and development, in order to provide a theoretical foundation for the future land space development and protection, ecological space management and regional eco-economic sustainable development of the study area. [Methods] The land use transfer matrix and dynamic degree model was used to analyze the land-use change characteristics at Ningyuan County, Hunan Province. The FLUS (future land use simulation) model was used to simulate and predict the quantity and distribution of ecological land under different scenario decisions in 2030. [Results] ① Cultivated land was mainly concentrated in the central area of Ningyuan County, and the original ecological land of forest land and grassland was mainly distributed in the north, south, and west. Among the natural ecological land in 2020, forest land accounted for 56.69%, grassland for 12.85%, and water area for 0.60%, and semi-artificial ecological land of cultivated land, accounted for 27.80%. ② Under the ecological protection priority scenario, the forest land, grassland, and water area increased by 15.12, 37.35, and 23.67 hm2, respectively, compared with those in 2020. ③ The policy had a significant regulating effect on the change of ecological land in the karst area, and socioeconomic development had a significant impact on water area increase. [Conclusion] The proportion of original ecological land in Ningyuan County is as high as 70.14%. The priority scenario of ecological protection ensures that ecological land is not occupied by non-ecological land at the maximum extent. This scenario is suitable for the urban development of Ningyuan County or the similar areas under the goal of building a forest city.

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林彤,冯兆华,吴大放,杨木壮,马佩芳.基于FLUS模型的喀斯特地区生态用地时空变化及多情景预测——以湖南省宁远县为例[J].水土保持通报,2022,42(2):219-227

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-11
  • 最后修改日期:2021-11-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-26
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