国家自然科学基金项目“中国土地利用/覆盖变化的气温反馈效应及机制研究”(42071415); 河南省自然科学基金优秀青年科学资助项目(202300410049); 河南省自然资源厅基础研究专项“河南省生态碳汇能力核算研究”
[目的] 测算华北平原耕地的综合价值，分析价值差异和变化趋势，为中国耕地保护提供科学依据，促进形成耕地“多位一体”的保护新格局。[方法] 基于耕地的现实功能与人为耕作的影响，将耕地的价值分为正向价值(经济价值、社会价值、生态价值)和负向价值(农药、化肥)，利用收益还原法、价值替代法和当量因子法对华北平原2000，2010，2020年耕地的综合价值进行核算。[结果] 2000，2010，2020年华北平原耕地价值分别为5.01×1012，8.45×1012，6.43×1012元；耕地的经济价值比例呈下降趋势，且正向价值在研究时段均大于负向价值。此外，各省间耕地价值分布不均衡，受耕地面积、耕作方式和农产品价格影响较大；其中，山东省耕地价值一直较为突出，河南省变化幅度较大；各省单位面积耕地的负向价值均呈上升趋势。[结论] 2000，2010，2020年，华北平原的正向价值中，经济价值比例呈下降趋势，耕地的社会价值和生态价值的重要性逐渐凸显。各省单位耕地负向价值的区域差异较大，且负向价值均呈上升趋势，河南省最为明显，农膜、化肥等对耕地的负向影响一直没有得到有效治理，且呈逐年加重的趋势。
[Objective] The comprehensive value of cultivated land in the North China Plain were estimated, and the value differences and change trends were analyzed, in order to provide a scientific basis for the protection of cultivated land in China, and promote the formation of a new pattern of “multiple integrated” cultivated land protection. [Methods] Based on the actual function of cultivated land and the impacts of artificial cultivation, the value of cultivated land was divided into positive values (economic value, social value, and ecological value) and negative values (environmental impacts of pesticides and chemical fertilizers). The comprehensive value of cultivated land in the North China Plain in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was calculated by the income reduction method, the value substitution method, and the equivalent factor method. [Results] The values of cultivated land in the North China Plain in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 5.01×1012, 8.45×1012, and 6.43×1012 yuan, respectively. The proportion of the economic value of cultivated land showed a downward trend, and the positive value was greater than the negative value during the study period. Moreover, the distribution of the value among provinces was unbalanced, and was greatly affected by cultivated land area, farming methods, and agricultural product prices. The value of cultivated land in Shandong Povince has always been more prominent, while the value of cultivated land in He’nan Province has fluctuated greatly. The negative value of cultivated land per unit area in each province showed an upward trend. [Conclusion] In 2000, 2010, and 2020, relative to the positive value in the North China Plain, the proportion of economic value showed a downward trend, and the importance of the social value and the ecological value of cultivated land gradually became prominent. The negative value per unit of cultivated land in each province showed large regional differences, and the negative value showed an upward trend, especially in He’nan Province. The negative impacts of agricultural film and chemical fertilizer on cultivated land have not been effectively controlled, and the trend is increasing year by year.