国家自然科学基金项目“面向多重不确定性的森林生态系统服务价值评估模型构建与优化研究”(71873003); 安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目(SK2019A0130); 安徽省自然科学基金项金(1908085QG310)
[目的] 研究长江经济带产业发展、土地利用及碳排放指数间的内在响应关系及作用机理，为区域协同发展提供思路。[方法] 基于GM (1，1)预测模型对产业发展、土地利用及碳排放指数进行灰色预测后进行耦合协调度分析，并运用PVAR模型探讨三者间的响应关系。[结果] ①区域各要素间的耦合度高于协调度，耦合协调状态呈增长趋势，而区域内部则呈现自下游至上游的降低趋势。②土地利用强度对于产业发展于前两期呈正向冲击，产业发展对碳排放为滞后2期内的先负而后转正冲击的倒V型波动趋势，土地利用对碳排放呈现明显的正相关脉冲响应。③三要素主要依赖于自身的发展路径，但产业发展对碳排放强度的解释力高于土地利用强度对其的解释力，而随着期数的增加，二者对碳排放的影响趋势均呈现增长趋势。[结论] 经济发展过程中产业结构调整及土地利用的配置和保障不可或缺，而碳排放作为未来发展中的重要制约因素也不可忽视，探索三者间的响应关系，能够更好地为区域协调发展提供依据。
[Objective] The internal response relationship and mechanism of action among industrial development, carbon emission and land use in the Yangtze River economic belt were studied in order to provide ideas for regional coordinated development. [Methods] Based on the GM(1,1) prediction model, the grey prediction of industrial development, land use, and carbon emission index were determined. A coupling coordination analysis was carried out, and the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model was applied to determine the response relationship among the three factors. [Results] ① The coupling degree among the regional factors was greater than the coordination degree, and the coupling coordination state showed an increasing trend. The trend within the region decreased from downstream to upstream. ② Land use intensity had a positive impact on industrial development in the first two periods, and industrial development had an inverted V-shaped fluctuation trend in which the impact on carbon emissions was first negative and then positive in the last two periods. Land use had an obvious positive impulse impact on carbon emissions. ③ The three factors mainly depended on their own development paths. However, the explanatory power of industrial development on carbon emission intensity was greater than that of land use intensity, and with the increase of the number of periods, the influence of both on carbon emissions tended to increase. [Conclusion] While industrial restructuring and land use allocation and protection are indispensable in the process of economic development, carbon emissions (as an important constraint in future development) can not be neglected. Determining the response relationships between the three factors can better provide a basis for coordinated regional development.