考虑“水-土-能-碳”关联的中部地区农业碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究
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作者单位:

1.南昌大学;2.南昌大学 公共政策与管理学院

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F301.2,X32

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274089);江西省社会科学基金项目(23GL10)


Study on the Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Drivers of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Central China Considering the Water-Land-Energy-Carbon Nexus
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    摘要:

    [目的] 明晰中部地区农业水土资源开发利用过程中能源消耗碳排放的时空格局演变规律,揭示其主要驱动因素,为助推中部地区农业低碳化绿色转型发展、实现“双碳”目标提供理论和数据参考。[方法]基于2010-2022年中部地区6省的社会经济数据,考察农业水土资源利用中能源消耗的碳排放,采用IPCC碳排放系数法测算2010-2022年中部地区农业碳排放量,借助Kaya恒等式和完全分解方法LMDI加法形式,探讨农业碳排放的驱动因素及其贡献值情况,运用ArcGIS可视化深入剖析中部各省农业碳排放在时空维度上的演变趋势,并探析水土资源匹配度与农业碳排放之间的关系。[结果]?2010—2022年研究期内中部地区农业碳排放总量呈现先快速上升后波动下降的趋势。农业碳排放的环比增长率经历了阶段性下降演变过程。?农业碳排放强度是促使中部地区农业碳减排的最主要因素,农业水资源经济产出则是导致农业碳排放增长的第一大要素。农业水资源经济产出因素和单位播种面积的农业用水量因素对中部地区农业碳排放的贡献存在正负两个方向的变动。?提高农业水土资源匹配度有助于抑制农业碳排放,但对各省的农业碳排放影响程度存在差异。[结论] 未来应关注水土资源时空匹配问题及其生态环境效应,因地制宜采取差别化的耕作模式,优化配置和改善农业水土资源开发利用方式,促进农业低碳化转型。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]This study aimed to clarify the spatial-temporal pattern evolution law of the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the development and utilization of agricultural water and land resources in central China,reveal the main driving factors, and provide theoretical and data reference for promoting the low-carbon green transformation and development of agriculture in central China and achieving the " double carbon" goal.[Methods]Based on the social and economic data of six provinces in central China from 2010 to 2022, the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the utilization of agricultural water and land resources were investigated.The IPCC carbon emission coefficient method was used to measure the agricultural carbon emissions in central China from 2010 to 2022. With the help of Kaya identity and LMDI addition form of complete decomposition method, the driving factors and contribution values of agricultural carbon emissions were discussed. ArcGIS visualization was used to deeply analyze the evolution trend of agricultural carbon emissions in central China in the spatial and temporal dimensions, and the relationship between matching degree of water and land resources and agricultural carbon emissions was explored.[Results]?During the study period from 2010 to 2022, the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in the central China showed a trend of rapid rise and then fluctuating downward. The growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions has experienced a gradual decline in the evolution process.?Agricultural carbon emission intensity is the most important factor to promote agricultural carbon emission reduction in central China, and the economic output of agricultural water resources is the first major factor leading to the growth of agricultural carbon emissions.The contribution of economic output factors of agricultural water resources and agricultural water consumption per unit sown area to agricultural carbon emissions in central China varies in both positive and negative directions.?Improving the matching degree of agricultural water and land resources can help to curb agricultural carbon emissions, but the impact on agricultural carbon emissions in different provinces is different.[Conclusion]In the future,we should pay attention to the spatial-temporal matching of water and land resources and their eco-environmental effects,adopt differentiated farming modes according to local conditions,optimize the allocation and improve the development and utilization of agricultural water and land resources, and promote the low-carbon transformation of agriculture.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-23
  • 录用日期:2025-05-23
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