The planting industry is an important part of agriculture, and it is of great significance to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics, driving factors and future trends of carbon emissions in the planting industry for formulating differentiated carbon reduction measures and achieving sustainable agricultural development. In this paper, the carbon emission factor method was used to measure the carbon emissions and intensity of planting industry in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2023, and the Tapio decoupling model, LMDI model and gray prediction GM(1,1) model were used to explore their spatial differences, driving factors and carbon emissions in the next 10 years. The results showed that: (1) the carbon emissions of planting industry in Shandong Province showed an "M" curve of "increase-fluctuation-decrease", and the carbon emission intensity continued to decrease. (2) Agricultural input is the main source of carbon emissions in planting industry in Shandong Province, and the carbon emissions of each factor are: chemical fertilizer (46.16%)> agricultural film (18.15%)> irrigation (15.85%), and corn is the main carbon source in crop planting, accounting for 32.24%; (3) The carbon emissions and economic growth of the planting industry in Shandong Province have changed from "weak decoupling" to "strong decoupling", and the spatial differentiation characteristics of carbon emissions in the planting industry at the municipal level are obvious, and the high carbon emission areas are concentrated in traditional agricultural cities such as Heze, Weifang, and Linyi. (4) The four factors of planting production efficiency, agricultural industrial structure, regional industrial structure and rural population size have a depressing effect on carbon emissions in the planting industry, while the regional economic level and urbanization level have a promoting effect. (5) In the next 10 years, the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Shandong Province will continue to decline as a whole, with Rizhao City having the largest decline and Zaozhuang City having the smallest decline. The results show that the total carbon emissions and intensity of the planting industry in Shandong Province have decreased in the past 20 years, but the development of agricultural economy and carbon emission reduction still face challenges.