湟水河径流演变特征及归因分析
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1.甘肃民族师范学院、兰州交通大学;2.兰州交通大学;3.甘肃民族师范学院

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TV121

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甘肃省科技厅“气候变化背景下小流域山洪响应机理及模拟研究”(22JR11RA143) 兰州交通大学 青年基金 变化环境下水文资料短缺区域山洪预报研究1200061160 兰州交通大学 天佑青年托举计划 1520260422


Analysis of Runoff Evolution and Its Attribution in the Huangshui River
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Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou ,China

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    摘要:

    [目的]探究人类活动与气候变化背景下湟水流域干流区非平稳水文序列与降雨-径流关系,并定量评估气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献,为该流域生态保护与高质量发展及水资源优化配置提供科学依据。[方法]基于1970–2022年逐日水文气象数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt突变点检测及小波分析等方法,系统分析水文气象要素的趋势性、突变性和周期性特征。在此基础上,采用Simple HYDROLOG(SIMHYD)模型模拟流域日流量过程,构建径流演变归因量化方案,评估不同时期气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献。[结果]湟水河年径流量序列呈明显阶段性波动,整体趋势不显著(p > 0.05)。西宁站年径流量在三个时段(1991–2000、2001–2010、2011–2022)较基准期(1970–1990)分别减少11.95%、12.41%和12.09%,其中人类活动贡献率分别为32.0%、198.4%和328.6%;民和站年径流量在相同时段变化幅度为-16.99%、-9.48%和+18.77%,人类活动贡献率分别为67.13%、-136.37%和177.96%。[结论]定量评估表明,人类活动对湟水河径流变化的平均贡献率超过65%,尤其在2000年之后普遍超过100%,已成为径流变化的主要驱动因素;气候变化在部分时段对径流恢复呈正向作用,但整体影响次于人类活动。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This study aims to investigate the non-stationary hydrological series and rainfall-runoff relationship in the main stream of the Huangshui River under the combined impacts of human activities and climate change, and to quantitatively assess the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variations. The findings are expected to provide a scientific basis for ecological protection, high-quality development, and optimal water resource allocation in the basin. [Methods] Based on hydro-meteorological data from 1970 to 2022 in the main stream of the Huangshui River, trend analysis, change-point detection, and periodic characteristics of hydrological elements were systematically examined using the Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, and wavelet analysis. Furthermore, the Simple HYDROLOG (SIMHYD) model was employed to simulate daily runoff processes, and a quantitative attribution framework was established to evaluate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes during different periods. [Results] The annual runoff series of the Huangshui River exhibited pronounced phased fluctuations, with no statistically significant overall trend (p > 0.05). At the Xining Station, the annual runoff decreased by 11.95%, 12.41%, and 12.09% in the three periods (1991–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2022) compared to the baseline period (1970–1990), with the contribution rates of human activities being 32.0%, 198.4%, and 328.6%, respectively. At the Minhe Station, the annual runoff changed by -16.99%, -9.48%, and +18.77% during the same periods, with the contribution rates of human activities being 67.13%, -136.37%, and 177.96%, respectively. [Conclusion] Quantitative evaluation revealed that the average contribution rate of human activities to runoff change of the Huangshui River exceeded 65%, and notably surpassed 100% after 2000, indicating that human activities have become the primary driving factor of runoff change. Climate change exhibited a positive effect on runoff recovery in certain periods, but its overall impact was secondary to that of human activities.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-22
  • 录用日期:2025-10-24
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