土地利用和气候变化对河北省水生态系统服务的影响研究
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1.河北地质大学土地科学与空间规划学院;2.河北地质大学管理学院;3.河北传媒学院

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河北省社会科学基金项目:“大占补”政策背景下河北省山前平原区“林耕置换”资源潜力研究(HB25GL027)


Research on the Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Water-Related Ecosystem Services in Hebei Province
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    摘要:

    摘要:[目的]研究未来土地利用(LUCC)和气候变化(CC)对水生态系统服务(WRESs)的影响,对于应对水资源短缺和生态退化问题至关重要。然而,很少有研究对不同气候和土地管理情景下WRESs的变化进行全面分析,缺乏对多尺度不确定性的深入探索。[方法]本研究整合了MRI-ESM2-0气候模型、FLUS和InVEST模型,评估了CC和LUCC对河北省水源涵养量(WC)和水土流失量(SE)的综合影响,并揭示了多尺度不确定性。[结果] 2024—2050年,河北省水源涵养量(WC)在两种气候情景下总体呈上升趋势。SSP245情景下先增长后稳定,而SSP585情景下持续增长。水土流失量(SE)整体下降,在SSP245情景下稳步减少,在SSP585情景下则表现为先升后降。CC在影响WREs方面起主导作用,对WC和SE的贡献率分别高达99.30%和93.14%,其影响随着时间的推移逐渐减小。LUCC对WC的贡献随着时间的推移而下降,而LUCC对SE的贡献虽然较小,但逐渐递增。CC驱动的不确定性通常高于LUCC,所有尺度的不确定性都随着时间的推移而降低。[结论] 河北省未来水生态系统服务总体呈“水源涵养增强、水土流失减弱”的趋势,气候湿化与生态保护的协同作用显著提升了区域水文调节与生态稳定性。强化生态修复与分区管控将是提升区域水安全与应对气候风险的关键路径。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: [Objective] Research on the impacts of future land use and land cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) on water-related ecosystem services (WRESs) is crucial for addressing water scarcity and ecological degradation. However, few studies have comprehensively analyzed the variations of WRESs under different climate and land management scenarios, with limited exploration of multi-scale uncertainties.[Methods] This study integrates the MRI-ESM2-0 climate model, the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to assess the combined effects of CC and LUCC on water conservation (WC) and soil erosion (SE) in Hebei Province, and to reveal their uncertainties across spatial and temporal scales. [Results] From 2024 to 2050, WC in Hebei generally exhibits an upward trend under both climate scenarios, increasing first and then stabilizing under SSP245, while continuously rising under SSP585. SE shows an overall declining trend, decreasing steadily under SSP245 but first increasing and then declining under SSP585. CC plays a dominant role in influencing WRESs, with contributions to WC and SE reaching up to 99.30% and 93.14%, respectively, although its influence gradually weakens over time. The contribution of LUCC to WC declines with time, while its effect on SE, though smaller, gradually increases. The uncertainty driven by CC is generally higher than that driven by LUCC, and the overall uncertainty decreases over time at all scales. [Conclusion] The water-related ecosystem services in Hebei Province are projected to show an overall trend of “enhanced water conservation and reduced soil erosion.”The synergistic effects of climate humidification and ecological protection will significantly improve regional hydrological regulation and ecological stability. Strengthening ecological restoration and implementing zonal management are key pathways to enhance regional water security and mitigate climate risks.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-15
  • 录用日期:2025-11-21
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