吉林西部地区新增耕地变化及其驱动机制的多尺度探测
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中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所

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中图分类号:

F301.21

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Scale-Dependent Driving Mechanisms of Newly Cultivated Land: Evidence from Western Jilin Province
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Affiliation:

Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    [目的]分析吉林西部地区新增耕地时空变化及其驱动机制的尺度效应,划分耕地保护分区,为区域差异化耕地整治与精准管控提供科学支撑。[方法]基于2000—2024年6期土地利用数据,采用空间自相关、地理探测器、SOFM聚类等方法,系统分析多尺度下新增耕地的驱动机制,并划定耕地开发保护分区。[结果]①区域耕地规模总体呈“先减后增”特征,2010年后新增耕地持续增加,至2023年恢复至351.71×10? hm2。新增耕地空间上高度集聚,全局Moran’s I在0.293~0.415之间。②驱动因子表现出显著尺度效应:县域尺度以后备耕地为主(q=0.618),乡镇与村尺度则强调居民点可达性和水资源条件的重要性,5 km格网尺度,景观格局因子成为核心。③人口密度等社会经济因子与耕地状态因子交互作用显著。④吉林西部耕地开发与保护分区特征差异显著:生态约束脆弱区主要分布于东部与西北部,面临较强的自然环境制约,新增耕地潜力有限;耕地重点保护区则集中在交通便利、耕地利用稳定的地区,需重点加强基本农田保护;耕地潜力开发区内后备耕地资源丰富,适宜开展耕地整治与扩展;新增耕地重点管控区主要位于城乡交界地带,需严格执行土地开发管控与生态保护政策。[结论]吉林西部新增耕地集中分布在研究区西部与西南部等耕地密集地区,驱动因子的尺度效应显著,社会经济因子与耕地状态因子交互作用显著。因此,应实施差异化管控措施、优化新增耕地布局及协调粮食安全与生态保护。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and scale-dependent driving mechanisms of Newly Cultivated Land (NCL) in western Jilin Province, and to delineate land protection zones, thereby providing a scientific basis for spatially differentiated reclamation and land use management.[Methods] The analysis was based on land use data from six periods between 2000 and 2024. Methodologies included spatial autocorrelation analysis, geographical detectors, and a self-organizing feature map (SOFM) network to systematically examine the multi-scale driving mechanisms of cropland expansion and to define land development and conservation zones.[Results] ① The total cropland area exhibited a pattern of initial decline followed by subsequent expansion. Newly cultivated cropland increased steadily after 2010, reaching 3.52 million hectares by 2023, with a strongly clustered spatial distribution (global Moran's I: 0.293–0.415). ② Analysis revealed significant scale effects in the driving factors. Reserve land availability was the dominant factor at the county level (q = 0.618), while settlement accessibility and water resources were more influential at township and village levels. At a 5 km grid scale, landscape pattern factors became the primary drivers. ③ Significant interactive effects were identified between socioeconomic factors, such as population density, and land-use conditions. ④ Four distinct functional zones were delineated: Ecologically vulnerable zones in the east and northwest, where natural constraints limit reclamation potential; Priority protection zones in stable agricultural areas with convenient transportation, requiring enhanced prime farmland conservation; Potential development zones with abundant reserve land resources suitable for expansion; and Key control zones in urban-rural fringes, where strict land development controls and ecological protection policies are needed.[Conclusion] NCL in western Jilin is concentrated in cultivated land-dense areas in the west and southwest. The driving mechanisms exhibit clear scale effects, and interactions between socioeconomic and land use factors are notable. Therefore, differentiated management measures should be implemented to optimize the layout of Newly Cultivated Land and balance food security with ecological protection.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-05
  • 录用日期:2025-11-09
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