[Objective] To explore the spatio-temporal variation characteristics, future trends and driving factors of the ecological and environmental quality (CHEQ) in the confluence basin of the Wuhai section of the Yellow River from 2001 to 2024. [Methods] By using methods such as trend analysis method, coefficient of variation method, and optimal parameter geographic detector, combined with remote sensing data, the temporal, spatial and stability changes of CHEQ are analyzed to predict future trends and detect driving factors. [Results] ① CHEQ shows a periodic trend of rising first and then falling every five years, with an interannual change rate of -0.0004·a-1, and overall shows a fluctuating decline. Spatially, it is lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast. Most areas do not show significant degradation, while some areas improve. Stability is characterized by the coexistence of high and low fluctuations, with a high proportion of moderate fluctuations. ② In the future, 61.2% of the ecological quality is likely to develop in a benign direction, while 38.8% will continue to deteriorate. ③ Single-factor detection shows that population density, climate, terrain, etc. are the main driving forces, and the explanatory power of human activity indicators is differentiated. Interactive detection indicates that there are complex interactions among various factors. For instance, there is a strong negative synergy between terrain and human activities, and there is an interactive coupling between economic and infrastructure indicators. [Conclusion] The ecological environment of this basin is jointly influenced by human activities and natural factors. In the future, targeted measures need to be taken to promote the sound development of the ecological environment.