三北地区气候与植被时空变化及相关性分析
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1.桂林理工大学;2.桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院

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Q948.112

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广西自然科学基金(2023GXNSFAA026434)


Analysis of spatial and temporal changes and correlation between climate and vegetation in the Three-North Region
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College of Geomatics and Geoinformation,Guilin University of Technology, Yanshan Street

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    摘要:

    [目的]分析三北地区气候与植被的时空变化及相互影响,为理解干旱半干旱区气候和植被耦合机制提供了新证据,对三北防护林工程等生态建设具有重要意义。[方法]以中国西北、华北、东北为研究区,利用Sen+ M-K趋势分析法、变异系数法和相关系数法,探讨了1982-2024年三北地区大气可降水量(PWV)、风速与归一化植被指数(NDVI)的时空变化及其相关性。[结果]①PWV、风速、NDVI三者年均值均表现出增长趋势,PWV极显著增加区域(28.49%)集中在青海高原等高海拔地区,风速显著变化区域(增减合计12.68%)主要分布在干旱区盆地,NDVI极显著增加区域(51.65%)集中在生态工程实施区(如黄土高原),而小兴安岭等地呈现显著退化趋势(13.82%);②三者的变异系数分别为0.05、0.03和0.07;③PWV与NDVI呈正相关区域(年尺度79.75%,月尺度84.17%),月尺度相关系数为0.60,二者关系密切。风速与NDVI的年相关性存在区域分异:在季风区边缘呈正相关(63.50%),在西北干旱区则表现为负相关(36.50%)。[结论]1982-2024三北地区PWV、风速与NDVI总体协同上升,标志着区域气候与生态环境的显著改善。三者在时空上的相关性受地形、气候及人类活动共同调控,呈现显著的区域差异性。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To analyze the spatiotemporal variations and mutual interactions between climate and vegetation in the Three-North Region, providing new evidence for understanding the coupling mechanisms between climate and vegetation in arid and semi-arid zones. This holds significant implications for ecological initiatives such as the Three-North Shelterbelt Project. [Methods] Using northwestern, northern, and northeastern China as the study area, the Sen+ M-K trend analysis, coefficient of variation, and correlation coefficient methods were applied to examine the precipitable water vapor (PWV), wind speed, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Three-North Region from 1982 to 2024. [Results] ① Annual averages of PWV, wind speed, and NDVI all exhibited increasing trends. with areas of extremely significant PWV increase (28.49%) concentrated in high-altitude regions such as the Qinghai Plateau. Regions with significant wind speed changes (combined increase/decrease of 12.68%) were primarily distributed in arid basin areas. Areas of extremely significant NDVI increase (51.65%) were concentrated in ecological project implementation zones (e.g., the Loess Plateau), while regions like the Lesser Khingan Mountains exhibited significant degradation trends (13.83%); ② The coefficients of variation for the three variables were 0.05, 0.03, and 0.07 respectively; ③ PWV and NDVI exhibited positive correlation in 79.75% of interannual and 84.17% of inter-monthly scales, with a monthly correlation coefficient of 0.60, indicating a strong relationship. The annual correlation between wind speed and NDVI exhibits regional differentiation: positive correlation (63.50%) occurs at the periphery of the monsoon zone, while negative correlation (36.50%) prevails in the arid northwest. [Conclusion] From 1982 to 2024, PWV, wind speed, and NDVI in the Three-North Region generally increased in tandem, signifying significant improvement in regional climate and ecological environment. Their spatiotemporal correlations are jointly regulated by topography, climate, and human activities, exhibiting pronounced regional variations.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-30
  • 录用日期:2025-12-01
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