Abstract:[Purpose]Focusing on the coupling and coordination of carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-growth in urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, this paper systematically reveals its temporal and spatial evolution law,influencing mechanism and future development trend. [Methods] Based on the data from 2003 to 2023, an evaluation system including 30 indicators was constructed. entropy method, coupling coordination degree model, spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model and ARIMA prediction model were comprehensively used to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal evolution law, driving mechanism and future trend of coupling coordination in this region.[Results] The results showed that : ( 1 ) The mean value of coupling coordination degree ( 0.44-0.75 ) in the study area showed an upward trend. However, significant inter-provincial and intra-provincial disparities exist. Hubei ( 0.82 ) leads, Hunan lags ( 0.74 ) ; ( 2 ) The driving factors have certain spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The level of digital economy and industrial structure upgrading is a positive driving factor, the contribution of science and technology investment is not significant enough, and government intervention has a certain degree of inhibition due to the contradiction between administrative governance and marketization. . ( 3 ) The high consistency between the actual value and the predicted value in 2023 confirms the reliability of the prediction.It is predicted that by 2030, the coupling coordination degree of core cities such as Wuhan, Changsha and Nanchang will be close to exceed 0.85, but the growth rate of small and medium-sized cities will be slow, and the inter-provincial gap will be narrowed. [Conclusion] In the past 20 years, the level of coupling and coordinated development of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion and growth in the region has continued to rise and will continue to rise. There are obvious inter-provincial and intra-provincial differences in the level of development within the region..It is suggested to strengthen the radiation effect of core cities, promote industrial transformation and the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, improve the ecological compensation mechanism, and accurately implement policies according to the spatial and temporal differences of driving factors to promote regional coordinated development..