西南边境地区气候风险对耕地多功能的影响研究
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1.百色市农业农村项目和农田建设规划服务站;2.百色市自然资源服务中心

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Impacts of Climate Risk on Farmland Multifunctionality in the Southwest Border Region of China
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    摘要:

    [目的]本文旨在揭示气候风险对西南边境地区耕地多功能的时空影响特征及其作用机制,为气候变化背景下的边境地区土地可持续利用提供科学依据。[方法]以中国西南边境地区为研究区,构建涵盖干旱、雨涝、高温、低温冻结和台风的气候风险指数,建立经济生产、社会生活和生态环境三维耕地多功能评价体系,分析2008—2023年气候风险与耕地多功能的时空演变特征,并采用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型识别气候风险对耕地多功能的动态影响及作用机制。[结果](1)气候风险总体呈“稳步上升—后期趋稳”的演变趋势,空间格局表现为“西高东低、南强北弱”,2018年后局部地区有所改善;(2)耕地多功能整体提升但维度节奏差异明显,经济功能呈“波动上升”,社会功能表现为“稳步上升后趋缓”,生态功能则为“波动上升且稳定性较强”,综合功能由早期的“功能冲突”逐步转向“协同发展”,并形成“广西百色—崇左、云南红河—西双版纳”双核心格局;(3)气候风险对耕地各维度功能均产生显著短期负向冲击,生态功能表现为“先降后稳”;方差分解结果表明,气候风险在第10期对经济、社会、生态和综合功能的贡献率分别达到5.46%、3.85%、3.80% 和 5.28%。[结论]气候风险显著削弱西南边境地区耕地多功能表现,特别是在经济与社会维度;生态功能相对具有恢复韧性。研究结果为在气候变化背景下统筹边境地区耕地多功能利用与区域可持续发展提供了经验证据与科学支撑。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spatial and temporal influence characteristics and mechanism of climate risk on the multi-functionality of farmland in the southwest border area, and to provide scientific basis for the sustainable use of land in the border area under the background of climate change. [Methods] Taking the southwest border region of China as the study area, this paper constructs a Climate Risk Index (CRI) encompassing drought, flood, high temperature, low-temperature freezing, and typhoon hazards. A three-dimensional evaluation framework of farmland multifunctionality—covering economic production, social livelihood, and ecological environment—is developed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of climate risk and farmland multi-functionality from 2008 to 2023. Furthermore, a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is employed to identify the dynamic effects and underlying mechanisms of climate risk on farmland multi-functionality. [Results] (1) Climate risk shows an overall trend of “steady increase followed by stabilization,” with a spatial pattern characterized by “high in the west and low in the east, strong in the south and weak in the north,” and partial improvements after 2018. (2) Farmland multifunctionality has improved overall, but its evolutionary rhythms differ markedly across dimensions: the economic function exhibits a “fluctuating increase,” the social function shows a “steady rise followed by deceleration,” and the ecological function demonstrates a “fluctuating increase with greater stability.” The composite function has gradually shifted from early “functional conflict” toward “coordinated development,” forming a dual-core pattern of “Baise–Chongzuo in Guangxi” and “Honghe–Xishuangbanna in Yunnan.” (3) Climate risk exerts significant short-term negative shocks on all functional dimensions, with the ecological function showing a “decline followed by stabilization.” Variance decomposition results indicate that by the 10th period, the contribution rates of climate risk to the economic, social, ecological, and comprehensive functions reach 5.46%、3.85%、3.80% and 5.28%, respectively. [Conclusion] Climate risk significantly undermines farmland multi-functionality in the southwest border region, particularly in the economic and social dimensions, while the ecological function demonstrates stronger resilience. The findings provide empirical evidence and scientific support for coordinating multi-functional farmland use and promoting sustainable regional development in border areas under climate change.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-04
  • 录用日期:2025-12-04
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