2024年汛期重庆市滑坡发育规律及其与降雨的关联性
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P642.22

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重庆市技术创新与应用发展/企业科技攻关联合行动计划项目“基于国产L-SAR卫星的重庆市滑坡形变监测方法研究”(CSTB2025TIAD-qykjggX0349);重庆市二零八地质环境研究院有限公司内部研发课题“极端强降雨条件下小流域浅表层滑坡监测预警模型研究”(YF-202502);市属国企“四链融合”科技创新项目


Patterns of landslide development and their correlation with rainfall in Chongqing City during 2024 flood season
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    [目的] 分析重庆市降雨型滑坡时空发育规律及其降雨关联性特征,以期减少地质灾害造成的损失,为区域性降雨型滑坡预警预测提供科学依据。[方法] 以重庆市2024年汛期降雨型滑坡为研究对象,基于数理统计和地理空间系统分析方法,分别开展了滑坡地质环境特征、降雨与滑坡关联性分析,建立I-DE-DE-I降雨阈值模型,采用混淆矩阵对比分析模型精度,并利用2025年6月降雨型滑坡数据进行预测能力评价。[结果] ①研究区滑坡主要发育于低海拔500~1 000 m,北坡向,坡度10°~30°,软岩地层,邻近褶皱及水系800 m内的区域; ②研究区滑坡的发生与降雨关系密切,表现出明显的临界阈值效应、滞后性和非线性特征; ③在建立的多种降雨阈值模型中,I-D模型的综合预测性能均优于其他模型,更适用于该地区的滑坡预警; ④建立的重庆汛期滑坡I-D阈值模型具有地域和时段特异性,其值高于全球和重庆全年阈值,但低于华东南地区及全国极端事件阈值,可作为该地区汛期预警的关键判据。[结论] 地质环境控制了滑坡的空间分布格局,而降雨是触发滑坡的关键因素。建立的I-D阈值模型为区域预警提供了关键依据,未来实现精准预警需超越单一降雨判据,构建融合多要素的动态综合模型。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall-induced landslides in Chongqing City and their correlation with rainfall were analyzed, in order to provide a scientific basis for regional early warning and prediction of such landslides, with the goal of reducing losses caused by geological disasters. [Methods] Using rainfall-induced landslides during the 2024 flood season in Chongqing City as the research subject, statistical and geospatial analysis methods were applied to examine the geological environmental characteristics of landslides and their association with rainfall. I-DE-D, and E-I rainfall threshold models were established, and their accuracy was compared using a confusion matrix. The predictive capability of the models was evaluated using landslide data from June 2025. [Results] ① Landslides in the study area primarily occurred in low-elevation areas (500—1 000 m), on north-facing slopes, with gradients of 10°—30°, in soft rock formations, and within 800 m of folds and river systems. ② The occurrence of landslides was closely related to rainfall, exhibiting clear critical threshold effects, hysteresis, and nonlinear characteristics. ③ Among the various rainfall threshold models established, the I-D model demonstrated superior comprehensive predictive performance compared to others, making it more suitable for landslide early warning in the region. ④ The established I-D threshold model for Chongqing’s flood season landslides was region-and period-specific, with values higher than global and annual thresholds for Chongqing but lower than thresholds for southeastern China and national extreme events. It can serve as a key criterion for early warning during the flood season in this area. [Conclusion] The geological environment controls the spatial distribution pattern of landslides, while rainfall is the key triggering factor. The established I-D threshold model provides a critical basis for regional early warning. Achieving precise early warning in the future will require moving beyond single rainfall criteria and developing dynamic comprehensive models that integrate multiple factors.

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曾德强,孙伟,张钟远,胡明军,余姝,陈鹏飞,胡雷,祝田野.2024年汛期重庆市滑坡发育规律及其与降雨的关联性[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):121-131

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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