融合时空注意力机制的土壤湿度预测方法
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Q948,S812.2

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河南省水利科技攻关项目“豫东引黄灌区作物耗水及生长过程信息智能感知关键技术”(GG202250);国家自然科学基金项目“地表时空异质性干扰下的非平衡复杂场景冬小麦叶面积指数反演”(42371358)


Soil moisture prediction method integrating spatiotemporal attention mechanism
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    摘要:

    [目的] 建立一个模型,解决现有土壤湿度预测模型在复杂时空动态表征与跨场景样本泛化的协同优化上存在的空间特征挖掘不足,时间动态建模局限以及数据分布差异适应性弱等问题,为应对旱涝灾害动态预警,灌溉资源精准配置以及提升农业抗灾能力提供科学决策引擎。[方法] 提出一种注意力引导的时空特征动态融合土壤湿度预测网络模型(AGSMP-Net),模型融合了长短期时空预测网络和“特征-时间-空间”的注意力机制模块,可以专注于时间序列信息处理与空间分布的变化捕捉,把握土壤湿度的长期变化趋势,优化时空维度的信息利用。[结果] 验证了利用气象要素(降水量、土壤温度)对土壤湿度预测任务中AGSMP-Net模型的可行性。在2015—2024年河南省的土壤湿度预测任务中,与ConvLSTM相比,AGSMP-Net模型精确度(R2)高0.048,均方根误差(RMSE)低0.012。降水量对土壤湿度模型预测精度有显著影响。[结论] 提出的模型通过时空注意力机制动态分配特征权重,能够有效捕捉土壤湿度变化的突变响应与稳态趋势,进而提升土壤湿度预测的精度。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] A model will be established to address the issues existing in current soil moisture prediction models, such as insufficient spatial feature mining, limitations in temporal dynamic modeling, and weak adaptability to data distribution differences in the collaborative optimization of complex spatiotemporal dynamic representation and cross-scenario sample generalization. This will provide a scientific decision-making tool for dynamic early warning of drought and flood disasters, precision allocation of irrigation resources, and improved agricultural disaster resistance. [Methods] To address these issues, an attention-guided spatiotemporal feature dynamic fusion network (AGSMP-Net) was proposed. The model integrated a long short term spatiotemporal prediction network with a feature-time-space attention mechanism module, enabling focused processing of time-series information and the capture of spatial distribution variations. It identified the long-term variation trends of soil moisture and optimized the utilization of information across spatiotemporal dimensions. [Results] Experiments validated the feasibility of the AGSMP-Net model in predicting soil moisture using meteorological factors (precipitation and soil temperature). In the soil moisture prediction task for Henan Province from 2015 to 2024, compared to ConvLSTM, AGSMP-Net model improved the accuracy (R2) from 0.758 to 0.806 and reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.069 to 0.057. Precipitation has a significant effect on the prediction accuracy of soil moisture model. [Conclusion] The proposed model dynamically allocates feature weights through the spatiotemporal attention mechanism, which can effectively capture both the abrupt responses and steady-state trends in soil moisture variations, thereby improving the accuracy of soil moisture prediction.

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赫晓慧,关煜歆,程淅杰,孟玉清,杨松林,冯跃华.融合时空注意力机制的土壤湿度预测方法[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):169-180

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-08
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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