基于可解释性机器学习的九寨沟景区滑坡易发性评价及驱动力分析
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P642.22

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国家重点研发计划项目“西南诸河上游水电工程扰动生态效应与边坡退化机制”(2024YFF1307801;2024YFF1307800;2024YFC3012702);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2023389);国家自然科学基金(42201094;42371014);中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所自主部署项目(IMHE-CXTD-01);中国国家留学基金委访问学者项目(202404910203)


Landslide susceptibility evaluation and driving force analysis for Jiuzhaigou scenic area based on explainable machine learning
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    [目的] 构建“因子筛选—模型评价—机制解析”技术路径,探究滑坡易发性评价中的预测精度较高的评价模型,揭示滑坡灾害发生的关键驱动因子,深入探讨复杂地质条件下滑坡影响因子的相互作用机制。为九寨沟景区及类似震后高隐蔽性滑坡区的灾害风险管控和生态保护策略制定提供科学依据。[方法] 以九寨沟景区为研究区,采用传统方法(层次分析法AHP、信息量法IV、确定系数法CF)与机器学习方法(XGBoost,LightGBM,CatBoost)进行易发性评价,基于相关性分析和共线性检验构建系统的评价指标体系,结合SHAP(shapley additive explanations)可解释性算法与最优参数地理探测器(OPGD)模型,识别关键驱动因子并探讨其作用机制。[结果] 滑坡易发性评价模型中,机器学习模型整体优于传统方法,CatBoost模型性能最优(AUC=0.927),高易发区集中于熊猫海、箭竹海、丹祖沟西北部、草海西南部及长海东南部;SHAP与OPGD共同识别距水系距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、坡向及多年年均降雨量为主要控制因子;OPGD交互作用探测显示距水系距离与距断层距离交互作用最强(q=0.33),多年年均降雨量与NDVI呈非线性增强关系(q=0.16)。[结论] 九寨沟景区内存在多处潜在滑坡高易发区,在高精度评价模型的基础上,SHAP算法对关键驱动因子的识别可靠,且多因子协同作用是九寨沟景区滑坡发育的关键机制。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This study aims to establish a technical pathway of ‘factor selection-model evaluation-mechanism analysis’ to investigate evaluation models with high predictive accuracy for landslide susceptibility, reveal the key driving factors of landslide disasters, and explore the interaction mechanisms among landslide influencing factors under complex geological conditions. It can provide scientific support for disaster risk management and the formulation of ecological protection strategies in the Jiuzhaigou scenic area and similar post-seismic regions with highly concealed landslides. [Methods] The Jiuzhaigou scenic area was selected as the study area. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using both traditional methods-analytic hierarchy process (AHP), information value (IV), and certainty factor (CF) and machine learning models (XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost). A systematic evaluation indicator system was constructed based on correlation analysis and collinearity tests. The shapley additive explanations(SHAP) explainable algorithm and the optimal parameter-based geodetector model (OPGD) were used to identify key controlling factors and investigate their interaction mechanisms. [Results] Among the landslide susceptibility evaluation models, the machine learning models overall outperformed the traditional methods, with the CatBoost model achieving the highest predictive accuracy (AUC=0.927). High-susceptibility zones were concentrated in Panda Lake, Arrow Bamboo Lake, northwestern Danzugou, southwestern Grass Lake, and southeastern Long Lake. Both SHAP and OPGD identified distance to water systems, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope aspect, and multi-year average annual rainfall as the primary controlling factors. OPGD interaction detection revealed that the interaction between distance to water systems and distance to faults was the strongest (q=0.33), and the relationship between multi-year average annual rainfall and NDVI showed a nonlinear enhancement (q=0.16). [Conclusion] There are multiple potential zones of high landslide susceptibility within the Jiuzhaigou scenic area. Based on high-accuracy evaluation models, the SHAP algorithm effectively identifies key driving factors. Moreover, the synergistic effects of multiple factors are the key mechanisms for landslide development in this region.

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申振宏,何松膛,王道杰,林勇明,裴曾莉,赵鹏.基于可解释性机器学习的九寨沟景区滑坡易发性评价及驱动力分析[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):213-226

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-20
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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