基于多模型的湖北省陆地生态系统碳储量与生境质量研究
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X171.1,X321

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中国地质调查局项目“国土变更调查国家级外业核查(地球物理中心)”(DD20230528)


Carbon storage and habitat quality of terrestrial ecosystems in Hubei Province based on multiple models
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    [目的] 探究湖北省陆地生态系统碳储量与生境质量的时空演变规律、驱动机制及碳经济价值,为区域生态保护与绿色低碳发展提供科学依据。[方法] 基于2010—2023年土地利用数据,运用PLUS模型模拟2030年自然发展、经济发展及综合发展情景下的土地利用格局,结合InVEST模型评估碳储量与生境质量时空分异,利用地理探测器解析驱动因素,并通过复利现值法估算碳储量经济价值。[结果] ①土地利用呈“先扩张后优化”特征,2020年后生态政策有效抑制建设用地扩张,促进林地和水域恢复。②碳储量表现为“先降后升”,其空间分布呈现“西高东低”的态势,坡度、高程及NDVI对碳储量空间分布影响程度较强,社会经济因素影响逐年增大。③生境质量整体趋降但局部优化,低等级生境扩张,鄂西山地维持高质量,中部平原受人类活动影响显著。④综合发展情景通过生态修复与用地管控,碳储量经济价值最高(2.69×1013元)。[结论] 自然与人文因素协同驱动碳储量与生境质量的变化,综合发展情景可实现“增汇”与“提质”双赢,为湖北省生态规划提供科学支撑。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and carbon economic value of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and habitat quality in Hubei Province were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for regional ecological protection and green low-carbon development. [Methods] Based on land use data from 2010 to 2023, this study utilized the PLUS model to simulate land use patterns under natural development, economic development, and comprehensive development scenarios in 2030. The InVEST model was employed to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of carbon storage and habitat quality. The geodetector was employed to analyze the driving factors, and the present value method was used to estimate the economic value of carbon storage. [Results] ① Land use exhibited a pattern of ‘initial expansion followed by optimization’. After 2020, ecological policies effectively curbed the expansion of construction land and promoted the restoration of forestland and water bodies. ② Carbon storage showed a trend of ‘initial decline followed by rise’, with a spatial distribution of ‘high in the west and low in the east’. Slope, elevation, and NDVI were the primary drivers of the spatial differentiation, and the influence of socioeconomic factors strengthened gradually. ③ Habitat quality declined overall but showed local improvements. Low-quality habitats expanded. The western mountainous areas of Hubei Province maintained high quality, while the central plains were significantly affected by human activities. ④ Under the comprehensive development scenario, the economic value of carbon storage reached the highest value (2.69×1013 yuan) through ecological restoration and land use regulation. [Conclusion] Natural and anthropogenic factors jointly drive the evolution of carbon storage and habitat quality. Under the comprehensive development scenario, a win-win outcome of ‘carbon sink enhancement’ and ‘quality improvement’ can be achieved, thereby providing scientific support for ecological planning in Hubei Province.

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史浩,李玄辉,曾冠中,刘晓静,张伟,茹亮,邢航.基于多模型的湖北省陆地生态系统碳储量与生境质量研究[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):247-258

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-20
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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