黄河流域粮食主产区农业生态韧性时空演进及障碍因子
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X321,F323.22

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国家社会科学基金青年项目“高技术制造业产业链创新链融合发展韧性评估与提升路径研究”(23CJY020);河南省社科规划项目“风险叠加背景下河南省粮食供给韧性动态演化及提升路径研究”(2024BJJ00437)


Spatiotemporal evolution of agro-ecological resilience and obstacle factors in main grain-producing areas of Yellow River basin
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    [目的] 探究农业生态韧性水平时空演进特征及主要障碍因子,为实现粮食安全和农业高质量发展提供科学参考。[方法] 基于2008—2022年黄河流域60个地级市面板数据,构建“抵抗与驱动—适应与重构—创新与发展”三维农业生态韧性评价体系,综合运用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)及障碍度模型对农业生态韧性进行测度。[结果] ①黄河流域粮食主产区农业生态韧性整体上呈波动上升的时序变化趋势和“东高西低、北强南弱”的非均衡空间分布特征。②总体空间差异较小,区域差异是总体差异的主要来源。③空间上呈显著的集聚特征,以H-H和L-L聚类模式为主,局部空间关联格局较稳定。④适应与重构能力是阻碍农业生态韧性提升的主要维度;农业科技投入水平和农村居民用电水平是主要的障碍因子。[结论] 黄河流域粮食主产区可通过实施分区农业生态建设,加强区域生态协同治理,建立低碳农业发展机制,提高农业生态韧性。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agro-ecological resilience and the main obstacle factors were investigated, in order to provide scientific references for the realization of food security and high-quality agricultural development. [Methods] Based on panel data from 60 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River basin from 2008 to 2022, a three-dimensional agro-ecological resilience evaluation system of “resistance and driving, adaptation and reconstruction, innovation and development” was developed. The entropy weight method, Dagum Gini coefficient, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and obstacle degree model were employed to quantify and analyze the agro-ecological resilience. [Results] The agro-ecological resilience of the main grain-producing areas in the Yellow River basin showed the following characteristics: ① Overall, a fluctuating upward temporal trend was observed, along with an uneven spatial distribution characterized by ‘higher in the east and lower in the west, stronger in the north and weaker in the south’. ② In terms of regional differences, the overall spatial variability was small, and inter-regional differences were the main source of total variation. ③ In terms of spatial clustering, significant clustering characteristics were observed, dominated by H-H and L-L clustering patterns, and the local spatial correlation patterns remained relatively stable. ④ Regarding obstacle factors, the capacity for adaptation and reconstruction was the main dimension constraining the improvement of agro-ecological resilience. Specifically, the level of agricultural technology investment and rural residential electricity consumption were the main obstacle factors. [Conclusion] The main grain-producing areas in the Yellow River basin can improve agro-ecological resilience by implementing region-specific agro-ecological development, strengthening regional ecological collaborative governance, and establishing a low-carbon agricultural development mechanism.

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薛选登,韩欣茹.黄河流域粮食主产区农业生态韧性时空演进及障碍因子[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):309-319

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-01
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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