2000—2023年沂蒙山区县域乡村韧性时空格局及驱动因素
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F327,D422.6

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山东省自然科学基金面上项目“基于多尺度视角的沂蒙山区耕地非粮化时空格局、驱动机制与动态管控研究”(ZR2024MD073);国家自然科学基金青年项目“黄河流域山东段‘三生’空间功能冲突诊断、格局及权衡机理研究”(42101258)


Spatial-temporal pattern and driving factors of rural resilience in Yimeng mountainous counties from 2000 to 2023
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    [目的] 分析沂蒙山区县域乡村韧性时空格局及驱动因素,为判定差异化韧性提升策略,推动山区乡村全面振兴提供科学参考。[方法] 以沂蒙山区为研究对象,基于社会、经济、生态3个维度构建乡村韧性评价指标体系,采用熵值法、最优参数地理探测器等方法,系统分析2000—2023年沂蒙山区县域乡村韧性时空格局及驱动因素。[结果] ①2000—2023年沂蒙山区县域乡村韧性水平呈现先下降后提升的波动态势,总体处于中等水平;基本呈现东西高,中部低的空间格局,高和较高韧性区向西部收缩,而低和较低韧性区由中部向四周扩散。②2000—2023年沂蒙山区社会韧性呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势,经济韧性呈现先降后升、西高东低的分布格局,生态韧性呈现持续衰减态势,且衰减速率显著加快。③沂蒙山区乡村韧性时空分异受到自然环境、社会经济、区域政策等因素的共同影响。地均固定资产投资和地均财政收入的影响程度最高,路网密度、建设用地比重、人均耕地面积的影响程度持续增强,各驱动因素的交互作用呈现非线性增强或双因子增强效应。[结论] 乡村韧性提升需突破单一维度优化局限,构建以生态韧性为基础、经济韧性为关键、社会韧性为根本的协同提升机制,全面提升山区乡村应对内外部扰动的可持续发展能力。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatio-temporal pattern and driving factors of rural resilience in counties within the Yimeng Mountain region were anlyzed in order to provide scientific reference for formulating differentiated resilience enhancement strategies and advancing the comprehensive revitalization of mountainous rural areas. [Methods] Using the Yimeng Mountain District as a case study, this study constructed a rural resilience evaluation index system based on the three sustainability dimensions of society, economy, and ecology, and adopted the entropy weighting method, optimal parameter geodetector, and other methodological models to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal pattern and driving factors. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2023, the resilience level of rural county areas in the Yimeng mountainous area showed a fluctuating trend of first decreasing and then increasing, which was generally at a medium level. The spatial pattern was high in the east and west, and low in the middle. The high-toughness areas shrank to the west, while the low-toughness areas expanded from the center to the periphery. ② From 2000 to 2023, the social resilience of the area first decreased and then increased. Economic resilience exhibited a distribution pattern that first decreased and then increased, with higher values in the west and lower values in the east. Ecological resilience exhibited a continuous attenuation trend, with a significantly accelerated attenuation rate over time. ③ The spatial and temporal differentiation of rural resilience in the Yimeng mountainous area was influenced by the natural environment, social economy, regional policy, and other factors. Average fixed asset investment and average fiscal revenue had the highest degree of influence. The influence of road network density, proportion of construction land, and per capita cultivated land area continued to increase. The interactions of various driving factors showed a nonlinear enhancement or two-factor enhancement effect. [Conclusion] Enhancing rural resilience requires moving beyond single-dimensional optimization. A coordinated enhancement mechanism should be established, with ecological resilience as the foundation, economic resilience as the core, and social resilience as the cornerstone, to holistically strengthen the sustainability of mountainous villages in coping with both internal and external disturbances.

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侯登登,马可心,孙丕苓,李楠,刘庆果.2000—2023年沂蒙山区县域乡村韧性时空格局及驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):344-356

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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