[Objective] In order to control the water environment carrying capacity and achieve the balance of ecological environment. this paper evaluated the water environment carrying capacity of agricultural production and the pollution risk, aimed to provide reference, and opinion for rational planning of agricultural production density and regional distribution, and for further sustainable development of agriculture. [Methods] According to the statistical data of 7 crop-growing areas of 24 provinces in China during 2006-2014, the paper estimated the water environmental carrying capacity of agricultural production with surplus nitrogen and water surplus methods. [Results] Chinese load alarm value of agricultural production on water environment was closed to the critical value of pollution. The pollution risks of Liaoning, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and Ningxia's was in the highest list. [Conclusion] The highest pollution risk areas should enforce the total amount control of agricultural production and pollution reduction measures. The Northeast plain, the Yangtze River basin and South China had no pollution risk, having some potential to expand the scale of agricultural production. Hetao irrigation district and Fenwei Plain had low pollution risk. The government should also consider the endemic traits of industrial development in the enhancement of pollutant abatement.