洛惠渠灌区地下水动态敏感因子研究
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国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD09B02);国家科学自然基金项目(40771124);中日合作项目(SBS-379)


Investigation on Sensitive Factors of Groundwater Dynamic innthe Luohuiqu Irrigation District
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    摘要:

    以陕西省洛惠渠灌区实测数据为例, 首先采用多元时空序列马尔可夫链分析模型, 对多年来洛惠渠灌区地下水动态进行趋势因子评价分析; 采用改进的灰色斜率关联法分析各影响因子与地下水埋深的敏感关系; 提出临界蒸发量这一概念; 建立ARIMA动态模型, 并对蒸发量进行预测。结果表明, 该灌区地下水动态趋势较恶劣; 蒸发量是影响该灌区地下水动态的最敏感因子, 各因子之间相互作用, 形成了复杂条件下的耦合关系; 当蒸发量超过1800mm临界值时, 地下水位开始回升, 对土壤有盐碱化的威胁; 未来几年蒸发量多数超过临界值, 模型预测精度较高。将以上方法体系运用到灌区地下水动态研究中是切实可行的, 可统一管理和调控水资源提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Firstly, tendency factors of groundwater dynamic are evaluated and analyzed with measured data of the Luohuiqu irrigation district in Shanxi Province based on the Markov chain model of multiple element time-space sequence. The improved grey slope coefficient cor relation degree analysis method is applied to analyze the sensitive degree of various factors and groundwater depth. The concept of critical evaporation is put forward and the ARIMA model is established subsequently to predictev aporation. Results show that the tendency of groundwater dynamic in the irrigation district is worse. Evaporation is the main factor affecting groundwater dynamic and the interact ionamongst various factors forms coupling relationship under the complicated condition. When evaporation exceeds the 1800 mm critical value, groundwater level begins to rise and soil is subject to the threat of soil salinization. It is predicted that the evaporation in following several years almost exceeds the critical value and the precision of model is relatively high. It is feasible and practical to apply above method system to the investig ationon groundwater dynamic in irrigat ion district. The study provides a scientific basis for unified management and regulation of water resources.

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于国强,李占斌,张霞,李鹏.洛惠渠灌区地下水动态敏感因子研究[J].水土保持通报,2009,(5):137-140

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  • 收稿日期:2008-07-08
  • 最后修改日期:2009-03-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-26
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