内蒙古赤峰市松山区耕地演变模拟
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内蒙古应用研究与开发计划项目“半干旱区坡地资源农业高效利用技术集成”(20110709);内蒙古高等学校科研项目(NJZY13070)


Simulation of Cultivated Land Evolution in Songshan District of Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia
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    摘要:

    [目的] 揭示赤峰松山区耕地演变规律,为该区土地利用合理规划管理、生态恢复和经济发展政策的制定提供科学依据。[方法] 基于1990,2000,2010年TM遥感影像解译数据,分析研究区耕地动态变化特征,采用GIS中多标准评价(MCE)方法,结合元胞自动机—马尔可夫(CA-Markov)模型,对2020年耕地空间格局变化进行模拟。[结果] 耕地的演变空间差异性显著:(1)城郊区由于城镇化速度的加快,大量耕地转化为建设用地。(2)松山区西部石质山区,该地区海拔较高,坡耕地较多,水土流失严重,土壤贫瘠,导致撂荒弃耕严重,同时由于退耕还林政策的实施,耕地在不断减少。(3)松山区东部黄土丘陵台地区,海拔相对较低,地势平坦,适宜于耕地开发,增加的耕地主要源于未利用地和草地。(4)2020年研究区土地利用格局模拟图显示耕地的破碎化程度将有所缓减,开始向规模化发展,同时松山区耕地空间格局稳定性逐渐增强。[结论] 该模型模拟结果的精度较高,依据耕地演变趋势,科学合理的利用耕地,制定相应的政策,同时研究结果可为土地资源优化配置奠定基础。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The paper aims to simulate the cultivated land evolution in Songshan District of Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia and provide scientific basis for the reasonable land use planning and management, ecological restoration and economic policy making. [Methods] The 1990, 2000 and 2010 TM remote sensing data was used to analyze the characteristic of cultivated land evolution in the study area. Using multi-criteria evaluation(MCE) method in GIS CA-Markov model, we simulated the spatial pattern of cultivated land in 2020. [Results] The cultivated land evolution showed significant spatial differences. (1) Due to the rapid urbanization in suburb, a large area of cultivated land has been converted into constructed land; (2) In rocky mountains of the west of Songshan District, more and more cultivated land have been abandoned due to serious soil erosion and poor soil resulted from higher elevation and steep slope, at the same time, the implementation of the policy of returning cultivated land to forest also led to the shrinking of cultivated land.(3) Altitude was relatively low and the terrain was flat in loess hilly region of eastern Songshan District, which was suitable for arable land. The increasing of cultivated land was mainly from the unused land and grassland.(4) In 2020, the simulated land use pattern of the study area showed that the fragmentation of cultivated land will be moderated, large-scale development will start. At the same time, the stability of cultivated land spatial pattern was increasing. [Conclusion] The precision of the model simulation results is high and provides support for cultivated land use planning and policy-making. At the same time, the results lay a foundation for the optimal allocation of land resources.

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盛艳,秦富仓,王桂华,包斯琴.内蒙古赤峰市松山区耕地演变模拟[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(1):206-211

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  • 收稿日期:2016-09-09
  • 最后修改日期:2016-09-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-03-23
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