变化环境下滇中地区典型流域水资源演变特征
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云南省教育厅重点项目“金沙江下游龙川江流域水沙输移过程及机制研究”(2015Z056);国家自然科学基金项目(41101099;41261044)


Evolutions of Water Resources in Typical Basin of Central Yunnan Province Under Changing Environment
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    摘要:

    [目的] 以典型流域为研究对象,揭示变化环境下滇中地区水资源的演变特征,为区域水资源综合管理服务。[方法] 以滇中地区蜻蛉河流域1963-2012年的月值径流实测资料为基础,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、小波分析和R/S分析等作为主要研究方法。[结果](1)蜻蛉河流域径流量年内分配极不均匀,主要集中在夏秋两季,而冬春两季占全年的百分比均较小;(2)自20世纪60年代以来,蜻蛉河流域径流量总体呈现出了减少的趋势,速率为4.80×107 m3/10 a,但其变化趋势的尚未达到0.05的显著性水平;(3)研究时段内蜻蛉河流域径流量的变化经历了“多-少-多-少”的演变过程,2010年为一个典型突变年份;(4)从多时间尺度特征来看,蜻蛉河流域径流量变化局域性特点较为突出,没有贯穿整个研究时段的周期性波动,相对较为明显的周期性变化为15 a;(5)蜻蛉河流域年径流量的变化存在比较显著的赫斯特现象,未来持续减少的概率较大。[结论] 蜻蛉河流域水资源季节性分布不均,年际波动幅度大,未来一段时间内将继续维持减少趋势,需提前做好合理规划。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] A typical basin was taken as study area, we demonstrated the evolution of water resources in Central Yunnan Province, to supply scientific support for integrated water resources management. [Methods] Runoff data was collected in Qingling River basin of central Yunnan Province. Linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall non parameter test, wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis were used. [Results] (1) Runoff is extremely non-uniform at the annual scale, and concentrating on the summer and winter. (2) Since 1960s, runoff of Qingling River basin showed a decreasing trend with a of 4.80×107 m3/10 a, but the trend not yet reached the significant level of 0.05. (3) The periodical evolution of runoff experienced“rich-lack-rich-lack”processes, in 2010, an abrupt change occurred. (4) From the aspect of multi-time scale variation, it was locally prominent but not over all covered. Comparatively a 15 year-periodical variation was obvious. (5) A significant Hurst phenomenon existed for annual runoff of Qingling River basin, whereby the decrease probability in the future was great. [Conclusion] Water resources in Qingling River basin are unevenly distributed in seasonal and inter-annual time scale. A decrease trend will continue in the next period, hence rational planning is important.

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丁文荣.变化环境下滇中地区典型流域水资源演变特征[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(2):274-277

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  • 收稿日期:2016-07-18
  • 最后修改日期:2016-08-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-05-10
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