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强震区滑坡活动强度的演变及敏感性评价
陈明, 蔡英桦, 王晓迪, 杨涛, 甘伟
成都理工大学 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室 成都 610059
摘要:
[目的]探讨汶川地震强震区滑坡的活动强度演变与敏感性,为滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害风险管理提供依据。[方法]选取四川省都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河12条泥石流流域为研究区,通过对研究区震后4期遥感影像的滑坡解译分析,研究震后滑坡的活动演化特征;同时利用概率综合判别法-层次分析法对滑坡物源进行多期敏感性评价。[结果]地震后该区域产生了825个强震滑坡;2009-2017年,在强震滑坡区域外新增376个滑坡,至2017年,仍活动的滑坡数量减少到368个,占滑坡总数的30.6%,同时利用曲线下面积(AUC)检验多期敏感性评价结果,准确率为75.6%~81.4%,评价效果较好。[结论]强震区震后活动滑坡数量及高敏感性区域面积整体表现降低趋势,表明震后滑坡处于逐步恢复过程,强震区的地质灾害活动但活动强度仍远远高于震前。
关键词:  强震区  滑坡活动强度  敏感性  演变
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.01.038
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目"强震山区特大地质灾害致灾机理与长期效应研究"(2017YFC1501004)
Evolution and Susceptibility Evaluation of Landslide Activity Intensity in Meizoseismal Area
Chen Ming, Cai Yinghua, Wang Xiaodi, Yang Tao, Gan Wei
State Key Laboratory for Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan 610059, China
Abstract:
[Objective] To explore the evolution and susceptibility of landslide activity intensity in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan earthquake in order to provide important practical basis for landslide and debris flow risk management. [Methods] Twelve debris flow basins were selected as study area along Longxi River in Longchi Town, Dujiangyan City, Sichuan Province. Based on the interpretation analysis of the remote sensing images after the earthquake, the evolution characteristics of the landslide after earthquake were studied. At the same time, the probability comprehensive discriminant analysis method and the analytic hierarchy process were used to analyze the susceptibility of landslide. [Results] The 825 co-seismic landslides occurred in the region after the earthquake, and the intensity of landslide activity reduced gradually. From 2009 to 2017, 376 new landslides occurred outside of the co-seismic landslide areas. In February 2017, the number of active landslides reduced to 368, accounting for 30.6% of the total landslides. The area under curve (AUC) method was used to test the multi-period evaluation results, the accuracy was 75.6% to 81.4%, and the evaluation results were satisfactory. [Conclusion] The number of active landslides after earthquakes and the area of high sensitive zone in meizoseismal area show a decreasing trend, indicating that the landslides after earthquakes are in the process of gradual recovery, but the activity intensity of geological hazards is still far higher than that before the earthquake.
Key words:  meizoseismal area  landslide activity intensity  susceptibility  evolution