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基于多项式分布滞后模型的上海市地面沉降验证与预测
曹伟伟1, 李明广1, 史玉金2, 夏小和1
1.上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院 土木工程系, 上海 200240;2.上海市地质调查研究院, 上海 200072
摘要:
[目的] 对上海市地面沉降进行验证与预测,为地下工程建设和地下水开采格局的科学调整提供参考。[方法] 基于地下水抽灌量、地面沉降和土层分层变形等长期监测数据,研究地面沉降量与地下水开采量、土层分层变形量之间的相关性,并结合上海市地面沉降特性及原因,建立考虑地下水开采量和第4含水层变形量的地面沉降多项式分布滞后模型(PDL模型)。[结果] ①上海市累计地下水开采量、第4含水层累计变形量与累计地面沉降量之间均具有高度的正相关性,但由于砂土蠕变、弱透水层释水缓慢等原因,地面沉降相对于地下水开采量和第4含水层变形都有着一定的滞后性;②采用考虑滞后效应的多项式分布滞后模型预测地面沉降,其计算结果相对误差较小、拟合效果较好;③若以当前采灌格局及第4含水层变形量作为参考进行预测,地面沉降在2019-2024年间将会发生稳定的轻微回弹现象。[结论] 上海市地面沉降与地下水开采量和土层变形量之间有着较高的相关性,且控制地下水开采能够有效缓解地面沉降的发展。
关键词:  地面沉降预测  地下水抽灌  随机变量模型  上海市
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.02.025
分类号:TU196
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目"地下工程降水开挖对区域地层变形作用机制的多尺度耦合分析(41602283),考虑卸荷与渗流作用下深部土多尺度力学行为的软土地层变形机制研究"(41977216);上海市青年科技启明星项目(19QC1400800)
Verification and Prediction of Land Subsidence in Shanghai City Using Polynomial Distribution Lag Model
Cao Weiwei1, Li Mingguang1, Shi Yujin2, Xia Xiaohe1
1.Department of Civil Engineering, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;2.Shanghai Institute of Geological Survey, Shanghai 200072, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The land subsidence in Shanghai City was verified and predicted, in order to provide reference for scientific regulations of underground construction and groundwater exploitation.[Methods] Based on monitoring data of groundwater extraction volumes, land subsidence and layered deformation of soils, the correlations between land subsidence and groundwater exploitation, deformation of soils layers were investigated. Based on the characteristics and causes of land subsidence in Shanghai City, a polynomial distribution lag model (PDL model) was established, considering groundwater extraction volumes and deformation of aquifer Ⅳ.[Results] ① There was a high positive correlation between cumulative groundwater exploitation, cumulative layered deformation of aquifer Ⅳ and cumulative land subsidence. However, due to the creep of sand and slow water release from aquitards, lagging effect existed between land subsidence and groundwater extraction volumes as well as layered deformation of aquifer Ⅳ. ② Calculated results using PDL were accurate with small relative error and better fitting effect when verifying land subsidence. ③ Based on the current groundwater extraction and recharge pattern and layered deformation of aquifer Ⅳ, the prediction showed that slight ground lift would occur in 2019-2024.[Conclusion] There is a high correlation between land subsidence and groundwater extraction volumes and soil deformation in Shanghai City, and controlling groundwater exploitation can effectively alleviate land subsidence.
Key words:  land subsidence prediction  groundwater exploitation  random variable model  Shanghai City