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城市化条件下的秦淮河流域径流多时间尺度变化特征及影响因素
李闰洁1, 李升峰1, 吴森垚1,2
1.南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023;2.中国人民解放军61175部队, 江苏 南京 210049
摘要:
[目的] 探究城市化条件下的秦淮河流域径流多时间尺度变化特征及其内在联系,为定量分析气候变化和人类活动对流域水文循环演变研究提供科学依据。[方法] 以秦淮河流域为研究区,基于1986—2015年水文气象资料和不透水面数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt突变检验方法,分析秦淮河流域多时间尺度降雨和径流的变化特征,并通过建立广义可加模型GAMLSS,分析降雨和流域不透水面变化对不同时间尺度径流变化的影响。[结果] ①秦淮河流域不透水面在30 a间扩展迅速,从1988年的3.09%扩展至2015年的24.01%,增长了近8倍。②不同时间尺度下径流序列变化特征不同,其中年径流序列增加趋势显著,并在2001年发生突变。③不透水面对小洪水的影响较大。对于相同的时间尺度,一般情况下,流量小的径流序列受不透水面影响较大;对不同时间尺度,不透水面具有累积效应,随着时间尺度增大,不透水面对径流的影响增强。[结论] 秦淮河流域城市化进程不断加快,不透水面扩张对不同时间尺度径流影响程度不同。
关键词:  城市化  径流变化  多尺度分析  GAMLSS模型  秦淮河流域
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20200630.001
分类号:P333.1;P95
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“城镇群扩展下流域水循环要素多时空尺度演变规律及驱动机制”(41771029)
Multi-scale and Impacting Factors of Runoff Variation in Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin
Li Runjie,Li Shengfeng,Wu Senyao
School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The characteristics and internal relations for multiple time scale runoff in urbanized Qinhuai River basin were explored in order to provide scientific basis for quantitatively evaluating the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the process of water cycle. [Methods] Based on the long-term hydro-meteorological and impervious surface data during 1986—2015 in Qinhuai River basin, the Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt change-point test were combined to identify the trends and abrupt change points of the precipitation and runoff series. The influence of rainfall and impevious coverage on runoff changes at different time scales was analyzed by using established generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework. [Results] ① The impervious surface had expanded rapidly in 30 years, with the impervious rate increased from 3.09% in 1988 to 24.01% in 2015. ② The characteristics of runoff series at different time scales were various, and the annual runoff series showed a significantly upward trend with an obvious abrupt change point at 2001. ③ The impervious surface expansion had a more significant impact on small intensity flood, for the same time scale, normally, the impervious surface had a greater impact on small runoff series than on high runoff series. Further, the imperviousness has cumulative effect with the increase of time scale. [Conclusion] The urbanization process of Qinhuai River basin is accelerating, and the effects of impervious surface expansion on multiple time scale runoff are various.
Key words:  urbanization  runoff variation  multi-scale analysis  GAMLSS model  Qinhuai River basin