引用本文:
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 82次   下载 52 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
广州市土地利用多情景模拟及其生态风险时空响应
李玮麒, 兰泽英, 陈德权, 郑至键
广东工业大学 管理学院, 广东 广州 510520
摘要:
[目的] 探讨景观生态风险对土地利用格局变化的响应规律,为促进土地资源可持续利用和维护区域生态安全提供科学支持。[方法] 基于2001—2017年广州市土地利用演变情况,利用未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型模拟2025年自然发展情景与“三线”(生态保护红线、永久基本农田保护红线、城镇开发边界线)约束情景下的土地利用空间分布;构建景观生态风险评价模型,进而分析广州市景观生态风险状况及其对土地利用变化的时空响应。[结果] 2001—2017年,建设用地的面积大幅增加,其他用地类型面积均不断减少;建设用地、草地和未利用地的变化幅度较大。相较于2017年,广州市2025年自然发展情景下建设用地持续扩张;而“三线”约束情景下建设用地的扩张得到制约,林地、水域等用地面积减少幅度有所缓和,耕地反而略微增加。2001—2017年,广州市景观生态风险指数不断上升,风险等级空间分布呈现圈层状结构,由中心城区向外围递减,低、较低生态风险区规模总体缩小,而较高、高生态风险区规模逐渐增大。[结论] 与2017年相比,2025年两种情景下的景观生态风险指数均有所提高,而“三线”约束情景下生态风险指数增幅较小,更符合广州市未来城市建设和生态保护的需要。
关键词:  土地利用变化  FLUS模型  多情景模拟  景观生态风险  广州市
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.04.028
分类号:X826;F301.2
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目“地学知识协同蚁群智能计算的土地利用高分辨率遥感影像分类”(41301377)
Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and its Spatial-temporal Response to Ecological Risk in Guangzhou City
Li Weiqi, Lan Zeying, Chen Dequan, Zheng Zhijian
School of Management of Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510520, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The response of landscape ecological risk to the change of land use pattern was explored in order to provide scientific support for promoting the sustainable use of land resources and maintaining regional ecological security. [Methods] Based on the evolution of land use in Guangzhou City from 2001 to 2017, the future land use simulation (FLUS) model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use under the natural development scenario and the “three-line” (ecological protection red lines, permanent basic farmland protection red lines, urban development boundary lines) constraint scenario in 2025. Then the landscape ecological risk assessment model was constructed to analyze the situation of landscape ecological risk and its spatial-temporal response to land use change in Guangzhou City. [Results] From 2001 to 2017, the area of construction land continued to increase, while the area of other land types continued to decrease. The change range of grassland, construction land and unused land was larger. Compared with 2017, the construction land was expected to expand significantly under the natural development scenario of Guangzhou City in 2025. The expansion of construction land would be restricted under the “three lines” constraint scenario, the reduction of land area such as forest land and water area was expected to decrease, while the cultivated land was expected to increase slightly. From 2001 to 2017, the landscape ecological risk index of Guangzhou City increased continuously. The spatial distribution of risk levels showed a circle layered structure with high center and low surrounding. The scale of low and lower ecological risk areas was reduced, while the scale of high and higher ecological risk areas was increased gradually. [Conclusion] Compared with 2017, the landscape ecological risk index under the two scenarios will increase in 2025, while the ecological risk index under the “three-line” constraint scenario has a smaller increase, which is more in line with the needs of future urban construction and ecological protection of Guangzhou City.
Key words:  land use change  FLUS model  multi-scenario simulation  landscape ecological risk  Guangzhou City