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天津市产业碳排放的影响因素及贡献
江文渊1,2, 曾珍香1, 张征云2
1.河北工业大学 经济管理学院, 天津 300401;2.天津市环境保护科学研究院, 天津 300191
摘要:
[目的] 综合考虑“水—土—能—碳”相互关系,研究产业碳排放的影响因素及贡献,为天津市减排决策制定提供一定依据。[方法] 对天津市产业碳排放进行测算,将水土资源因素引入Kaya恒等式,运用LMDI模型计算产业碳排放各影响因素的贡献。[结果] 2004—2018年天津市各产业碳排放均呈现上升趋势;整体来看,水资源经济产出、人口数量促进天津市各产业碳排放,且前者为主要促进因素,水土资源因素抑制各产业碳排放,碳排放强度促进农业碳排放,而抑制其他产业碳排放,人均用地面积抑制农业碳排放,而促进其他产业碳排放;水土资源因素对各产业碳排放影响的变化与水土资源匹配度变化有较好的一致性,单位用地面积用水量越多,其对碳排放的促进作用越大。[结论] 为实现节能减排,应发展节水产业,优化城市水土资源开发利用,发挥水土资源因素对碳排放的抑制作用。
关键词:  产业碳排放  水土资源匹配度  LMDI模型  天津市
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.05.023
分类号:X24
基金项目:生态环境部水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项“天津滨海工业带水污染控制与生态修复顶层设计方案和路线图研究”(2017ZX07107-001)
Impact Factors and Contribution of Industrial Carbon Emissions of Tianjin City
Jiang Wenyuan1,2, Zeng Zhenxiang1, Zhang Zhengyun2
1.School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China;2.Tianjin Academy of Environmental Sciences, Tianjin 300191, China
Abstract:
[Objective] Considering the interactions of water, land, energy, and carbon, the impact factors and contribution of industrial carbon emissions were studied to provide suggestions to Tianjin's emission reduction decision-making bodies.[Methods] The industrial carbon emissions of Tianjin City were calculated, and a logarithmic mean divisia index was used to calculate industrial carbon emissions by introducing water and land factor to the Kaya identity.[Results] From 2004 to 2018, all industrial carbon emissions of Tianjin City showed a staged upward trend. The economic output of industrial water resources and population promoted the industrial carbon emissions of Tianjin City, and the former was the main driving factor. Water and land factor had an inhibitory effect on industrial carbon emissions. Carbon emission intensity was a promoting factor for agricultural carbon emissions, while it was an inhibitory factor for other industrial carbon emissions. Land area per capita was an inhibitory factor for agricultural carbon emissions, while it was a promoting factor for other industrial carbon emissions. The changes in the impact of land and water resources on carbon emissions in various industries agreed well with the changes in the matching degree of water and land resources. The water consumption per unit land area increased, and the promotional effect of water and land resources on carbon emission became stronger.[Conclusion] To save energy and reduce emissions, water-saving industries should be developed, and urban water and soil development and utilization should be optimized to enable water and land resources to inhibit carbon emissions.
Key words:  industrial carbon emissions  matching degree of water and land  logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI)  Tianjin City