引用本文:
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 74次   下载 144 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
基于Clue-S模型的石马河流域东莞段生态系统服务价值变化情景模拟
张沐锋1,2, 刘万侠2, 王健恩1, 罗先强1, 陈平1, 宫清华2,3
1.仲恺农业工程学院 园艺园林学院, 广东 广州 510225;2.广州地理研究所, 广东省地理 空间信息技术与应用公共实验室, 广东 广州 510070;3.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室, 广东 广州 511458
摘要:
[目的] 探究生态系统服务价值演变的内在作用机制,旨在寻求以流域为单元的生态农业和城镇的优化配置模式。[方法] 基于土地利用及生态服务价值相关理论与方法,以石马河流域东莞段2010-2020年土地利用数据为基础,利用Clue-S模型对2025年土地利用格局进行模拟,得出2025年区域在生态安全、耕地优先和建设发展3种情景下的土地利用空间布局和优化配置结果,分析各情景下流域生态系统服务价值时空格局。[结果] 在2010-2020年,石马河流域东莞段生态服务价值下降了1.80×107元,主要为耕地、林地、园地转出。2025年在耕地优先、生态安全、建设发展的情境下ESV分别为9.44×107,9.62×107,9.38×107元,除了生态安全之外,其余两个情景较2020年生态系统服务价值ESV都有下滑。[结论] 对处于快速城镇化发展且生态与发展矛盾突出的地区,进行流域生态系统服务价值进行模拟与分析,有利于增强对区域在不同发展模式下生态系统服务价值空间布局的认识和理解,为土地利用规划与生态经济协调发展提供宏观的参考。
关键词:  Clue-S模型  情景分析  生态系统服务价值  土地利用
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.01.022
分类号:X21;X171
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目“华南地区强降水诱发的群发性滑坡形成机理与预警阈值”(41671506),“华南强降水诱发的群发性滑坡表土液化机理与流态化过程”(41977413);广东省科学院专项(2020040101,2020GDASYL-20200102002,20200301003);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室项目(GML2019ZD0301)
Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model
Zhang Mufeng1,2, Liu Wanxia2, Wang Jianen1, Luo Xianqiang1, Chen Ping1, Gong Qinghua2,3
1.College of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Zhongkai University of Agriculture Engineering, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510225, China;2.Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510070, China;3.Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511458, China
Abstract:
[Objective] To explore the intrinsic mechanism of ecosystem service value (ESV) evolution, an optimal allocation model for ecological agriculture with towns and river basins as units was investigated.[Methods] Based on the theories and methods of land use and ecological service value, with the Shima River basin land use data from 2010 to 2020, the Clue-S model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2025, and the results of land use spatial distribution and optimal allocation under three scenarios of ecological security, farmland priority and construction and development in 2025 were obtained, and the space-time pattern of watershed ESV under each scenario was analyzed.[Results] From 2010 to 2020, the ecological service value of the Dongguan section of the Shima River basin decreased by 1.80×107 yuan, which was mainly converted into cultivated land, forest and orchard. The ESVs were 9.44×107, 9.62×107, and 9.38×107 yuan under the condition of giving priority to the ecological security of the construction and development of cultivated land in 2025. In addition to ecological security, the other two scenarios showed a decline from the ESV in 2020.[Conclusion] In areas with rapid urbanization and a prominent contradiction between ecology and development, the simulation and analysis of watershed ESV is helpful to enhance the understanding of the spatial distribution of ESVs under different development modes and to provide macroscopic reference for land use planning and coordinated development of an ecological economy.
Key words:  Clue-S model  scenario analysis  ecosystem services value (ESV)  land use