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基于三维生态足迹扩展模型的中国海岸带生态足迹及其影响因素研究
曹慧博1, 张颖1, 杨静1, 孟伟庆1,2
1.天津师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387;2.天津市环境变化与生态修复校企协同创新实验室, 天津 300387
摘要:
[目的] 计算中国大陆海岸带地区的生态足迹并分析其驱动因素,为生态文明建设与可持续发展提供参考。[方法] 基于三维生态足迹扩展模型,计算中国大陆海岸带地区2008-2017年的生态足迹、生态承载力、足迹深度,从时间和空间两方面分析中国海岸带地区可持续发展的状况,并利用偏最小二乘法对驱动因素进行分析。[结果] ①2008-2017年中国海岸带地区总生态承载力、人均生态足迹逐年增大,从组分贡献率来看,化石燃料用地人均生态足迹最大;②2008-2017年人均生态承载力变幅不大,在各省市中,广西壮族自治区人均生态承载力始终最大,上海市人均生态承载力始终最小;③足迹深度呈现出逐年增大趋势且深度值均大于1,消耗自然资本存量,生态赤字加剧。从空间上看,中北部省市的人均足迹深度普遍较大,南部的广西、广东、福建3省足迹深度则相对较低;④经济发展、城市规模、环境污染和区际交流是导致生态足迹和足迹深度增加的驱动因素;生态建设和科学技术提高对缓解生态足迹和足迹深度加大有着积极作用。[结论] 未来可以通过调整产业结构和人口结构,改变消费方式,进一步加强生态建设和提高科技水平来实现中国海岸带地区的可持续发展。
关键词:  三维生态足迹  扩展模型  海岸带  驱动因素
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.01.035
分类号:K903;F205
基金项目:天津市科学技术局“天津市环境变化与生态修复校企协同创新实验室(17PTSYJC00160)”建设专项经费资助。
A Study of Ecological Footprint and Its Influencing Factors in China's Coastal Zone Based on Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Expansion Model
Cao Huibo1, Zhang Ying1, Yang Jing1, Meng Weiqing1,2
1.School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China;2.Co-innovation Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Restoration of Tianjin, Tianjin 300387, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The ecological footprint was calculated and the driving factors in China's continental coastal zone was analyzed in order to provide a reference for ecological civilization construction and sustainable development.[Methods] Based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint expansion model, the ecological footprint, biological capacity, and footprint depth of China's mainland coastal zone from 2008 to 2017 were calculated. The sustainable development of China's coastal zone was analyzed in terms of time and space, and the driving factors were analyzed using the partial least-squares method.[Results] ① In the 10 years from 2008 to 2017, the total biological capacity and the per capita ecological footprint of China's coastal zone increased yearly. In terms of component contribution, the per capita ecological footprint of energy fossil land was the largest. ② From 2008 to 2017, the per capita biological capacity did not vary significantly. Among all provinces and cities, the per capita biological capacity of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was always the largest, while that of Shanghai City was always the smallest. ③ The depth of the footprint showed a trend of increasing year by year, and the depth was greater than 1, which consumed the natural capital stock and aggravated the ecological deficit. From the perspective of space, the depth of the per capita footprint was generally large in central and northern provinces, while the depth of the per capita footprint in Southern Guangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian provinces was relatively low. ④ Economic development, urban scale, environmental pollution, and interregional communication were the driving factors that lead to an increase in ecological footprint and footprint depth. Ecological construction and the improvement of science and technology played a positive role in alleviating the ecological footprint and increasing the depth of the footprint.[Conclusion] In the future, the sustainable development of China's coastal zones can be realized by adjusting the industrial and population structures, changing consumption patterns, further strengthening ecological construction, and improving the scientific and technological levels.
Key words:  three-dimensional ecological footprint  extension model  coastal zone  driving factors