长江中下游地区滑坡的易发性评价——以江西省为例
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P642.22

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江苏省农业科技自主创新项目“典型困难立地生态经济防护林营建技术方案”〔CX(17)1004〕;林业公益性行业科研专项“露采石矿植被恢复与重建关键技术研究与示范”(201504406);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)


Evaluation of Landslide Susceptibility in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River—Taking Jiangxi Province as a Case Study
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    摘要:

    [目的] 预测长江流域滑坡灾害分布情况,旨在开展隐患排查和危险评估,提升灾害的应对能力。[方法] 基于1 211个滑坡分布点数据和15个环境变量,通过MaxEnt模型对江西省的滑坡易发区分布进行预测,同时采用Jackknife检验评估15个环境变量对预测结果的重要程度,最终确定不同程度滑坡易发区的面积和分布以及影响滑坡灾害发生的主要环境变量。[结果] 江西省内极高、高和中易发区分别占全省总面积的29.6%,36.5%和23%。滑坡发生的概率以鄱阳湖平原为中心向四周呈现逐渐增加的趋势,集中分布在西部和南部的山地丘陵地带。海拔、坡度、植被归一化指数NDVI、年均降雨量和距离水系和道路的距离是影响滑坡发生和分布的主要环境变量,累积贡献率在83%以上。[结论] 江西省滑坡易发区的分布具有明显的空间差异性,主要分布在海拔较高、地质复杂和岩层节理裂隙发育的地区,降雨是滑坡发生的直接诱导因子。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The distribution predicting of landslide disasters in the Yangtze River basin were conducted to strengthen hidden danger investigation and risk assessment, and to improve disaster response capabilities. [Methods] Based on 1 211 landslide distribution points and 15 environmental variables, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the distribution of landslide-prone areas in Jiangxi Province. Then the Jackknife test was used to evaluate the importance of 15 environmental variables to the prediction results. Finally, the area and distribution of landslide prone areas with different risk levels and the main environmental variables affecting the occurrence of landslide disasters were determined. [Results] The extremely high, high, and medium landslide-prone areas in Jiangxi Province accounted for 29.6%, 36.5%, and 23% of the total area of the province, respectively. The probability of landslide occurrence gradually increased from the Poyang Lake plain (as the center) to the surrounding areas, and was concentrated in the western and southern mountainous and hilly areas of Jiangxi Province. Altitude, slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), average annual rainfall, and distance from rivers and roads were the main environmental variables affecting the occurrence and distribution of landslides, and the cumulative contribution rate was more than 83%. [Conclusion] The distribution of landslide-prone areas in Jiangxi Province has obvious spatial differences, mainly associated with areas of high altitude, complex geology, and developed joints and cracks in rock formations. Rainfall is the direct inducing factor for landslide occurrence.

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唐兴港,王慧勇,黄豆,张金池.长江中下游地区滑坡的易发性评价——以江西省为例[J].水土保持通报,2021,41(3):166-172

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-09
  • 最后修改日期:2021-02-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-07-08
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