[Objective] The impact of the expansion of Lycium barbarum planting land was predict scientifically in Zhongning County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, in order to provide scientific and reliable suggestions for the future agricultural spatial layout and planting development of characteristic industries in the area. [Methods] Based on land survey data from 2005 to 2021 and considering the policy of “balancing in and out” of arable land, Zhongning County was taken as the research object and two constraint scenarios-one with and the other without the protection of permanent basic farmland-were set up. These were then used to simulate the future land use change of Zhongning County in 2025 and 2035 using the patch-generating land use simulation model (PLUS). Specifically, this model helped investigate the occupation of permanent basic farmland for L. barbarum cultivation in the future. [Results] According to the model, by 2035, under the with and without permanent basic farmland constraints scenarios, the area of land used for L. barbarum will grow by 59.81% and 98.48%, respectively. Most of the newly added L. chincnse will be around the original L. barbarum land, and the main townships with increased area will be concentrated in Mingsha Town and Dazhanchang Town. Moreover, the study showed that, under the scenario without permanent basic farmland constraints, the areas of permanent basic farmland in 2025 and 2035 will be encroached by 1,100.00 hm² and 2,386.67 hm², respectively, in which the risk of permanent basic farmland in the north-central region being encroached by L. barbarum land will be the highest. [Conclusion] It is therefore necessary to strengthen the regulation of the development of L. barbarum cultivation in high-risk townships and rationally plan existing and future land for “non-food” cultivation in order to coordinate the economic development of the area better with the protection of permanent basic farmland and promote the development of sustainable agriculture in the region.