京津冀耕地生态安全时空演变及影响因素研究
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作者单位:

1.河北大学经济学院 河北保定;2.农业农村部农村经济研究中心 北京

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中图分类号:

F323.1

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Research on Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
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Research Center for Rural Economy,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

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    摘要:

    [目的]科学合理评估京津冀地区耕地生态安全时空演变及驱动因子,提升相关部门对耕地生态的保护意识,为加快构建农业高质量发展格局提供坚实理论支撑与科学依据。[方法]基于PSR(压力-状态-响应)模型构建耕地生态安全评价指标体系,综合运用熵值法、Kernel密度估计法和Dagum基尼系数及其分解法探讨京津冀地区2011—2022年的耕地生态安全发展水平、动态演进特征及区域差异来源,最后通过GTWR模型分析了耕地生态安全影响因素的时空异质性。[结果]j京津冀耕地生态安全稳步提升,地区增速呈“中部领先、南北跟进”特征。其中,压力维度显著上升,状态与响应维度均波动下降;k京津冀各城市间绝对差异逐步缩小且北部地区分化显著,中南部地区发展较均衡;l京津冀耕地生态安全总体区域差异略有缩小,区域内差异程度为南部>中部>北部,差异主要源于区域间差异净值;m京津冀耕地生态安全影响因素存在显著空间异质性,作物种植结构、财政支农水平、农业科研活动经费起正向驱动作用,日照时数与降水量等自然要素呈双向作用,人均GDP则主要起抑制作用。[结论]京津冀耕地生态安全整体水平有所提升但地区发展仍存在较大差距,若要实现整体均衡发展,需着重推进区域差异化协同发展策略,在推进高标准农田建设与加强生态保护的同时,实施耕地生态安全动态监测与预警机制。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Scientifically and rationally assessing the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of cultivated land ecological security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can raise the awareness of relevant authorities regarding the protection of cultivated land ecology, and provide solid theoretical support and scientific basis for accelerating the construction of a pattern of high-quality agricultural development. [Methods] Based on the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) framework, this study firstly establishes the evaluation index system of cultivated land ecological security level. By integrating the entropy weight method, Kernel density estimation and Dagum Gini coefficient analyze the developmental trajectory, evolution characteristics, and sources of regional disparities in cultivated land ecological security across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2011 to 2022. Additionally, the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of influencing factors cultivated land ecological security is explored using the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model. [Results] The cultivated land ecological security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has steadily improved, and the regional growth rates characterized by "central leadership followed by northern and southern regions." Among the three P-S-R dimensions, Among the three P-S-R dimensions, the pressure dimension shows a significant upward trend, while the state and response dimensions display fluctuating downward trends. The absolute differences in cultivated land ecological security levels among cities have gradually narrowed, with pronounced differentiation in the northern region and more balanced development in central and southern regions. The overall regional differences in cultivated land ecological security slightly narrowed, and the differences in the region are in the order of highest to lowest: south > central > north, primarily driven by net inter-regional differences. The influencing factors of cultivated land ecological security demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity. Among them, crop cultivation structure, agricultural financial support, and funding for agricultural research activities demonstrate positive driving effects; natural factors (e.g. sunshine hours and precipitation) exert bidirectional effects; and per capita GDP primarily exerts inhibitory effects.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-16
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-27
  • 录用日期:2026-03-27
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