基于MEDALUS模型的我国北方六省区土地荒漠化敏感性分析
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作者单位:

1. 河南理工大学 测绘与国土信息工程学院

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中图分类号:

P931

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(联合)(No.U22A20620);矿山环境与灾害协同监测煤炭行业工程研究中心(安徽理工大学)开放基金(No.KSXTJC202301);测绘科学与技术双一流 项目(No.BZCG2023010);


Land Desertification Sensitivity Analysis in Six Northern Provinces and Autonomous Regions of China Based on the MEDALUS Model
Author:
Affiliation:

School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U22A20620).Surveying and mapping Science and Technology "double first-class" project (Grant No. BZCG202301); The Project was Supported by Coal Industry Engineering Research Center of Mining Area Environmental And Disaster Cooperative Monitoring(Anhui University of Science and Technology)(NO. KSXTJC202301)

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    摘要:

    摘要:[目的]北方六省区荒漠化面积占全国荒漠化总面积的81.5%,探究其荒漠化敏感性程度,对我国北方区域生态安全和社会经济发展有着重要意义。[方法]基于地中海荒漠化与土地利用模型、图谱分析法和地理探测器分析2010-2023年北方六省区荒漠化敏感性的时空演变特征和驱动机制。[结果](1)北方六省区荒漠化敏感性类型以稳定型为主。不同类型转换面积达136.22万km2,占研究区面积36.11%,主要发生在高敏感、中敏感和低敏感类型之间以及不同敏感类型的交界处。(2)荒漠化各敏感性类型面积变化呈明显差异。其中极敏感类型区域的面积由增长转为下降;高敏感类型呈波动状态;中敏感类型面积显著减少;低敏感区域持续扩展;不敏感区域面积保持稳定,总体趋势显示荒漠化敏感性有所缓解。(3)驱动因素分析显示,干燥度与土地利用类型的交互作用最显著。单因子驱动中,干燥度对敏感性变化的影响最大。[结论]研究期间北方六省区荒漠化敏感性整体态势降低,总体上呈西高东低的空间分布格局。未来北方六省区荒漠化治理过程中可加强对气候因子的监测,并合理有效规划土地利用类型。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: [Objective] Desertification in the six northern provinces and regions accounts for 81.5% of China's total desertified area. Investigating the sensitivity of desertification in these areas holds significant importance for ecological security and socioeconomic development in northern China. [Methods] Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use model, map analysis, and geographical detector, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of desertification sensitivity in the six northern provinces and autonomous regions during the period from 2010 to 2023. [Results] (1) Desertification sensitivity in the six northern provinces and autonomous regions was dominated by a stable type. The area of transitions among different sensitivity types reached 1.3622 million km2, accounting for 36.11% of the study area. Transitions mainly occurred among high-, medium-, and low-sensitivity types, as well as at the boundaries between different sensitivity types. (2) There are marked differences in the changes in the areas of various desertification sensitivity types. Specifically, the area of extremely sensitive regions shifted from increasing to decreasing; high-sensitivity areas fluctuated; medium-sensitivity areas decreased significantly; low-sensitivity areas continued to expand; and non-sensitive areas remained stable. Overall, these trends indicate a general alleviation of desertification sensitivity. (3) The driving factor analysis revealed that the interaction between aridity and land use type exerted the strongest influence. Among the individual driving factors, aridity had the greatest effect on changes in desertification sensitivity. [Conclusion] During the study period, the overall desertification sensitivity in the six northern provinces and autonomous regions decreased, showing a spatial distribution pattern of higher sensitivity in the west and lower sensitivity in the east. In future desertification control efforts in this region, enhanced monitoring of climatic factors and rational planning of land use types are recommended.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-15
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-27
  • 录用日期:2026-03-28
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