基于“水-土-能-碳”关联的中部地区农业碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究
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F301.2,X32

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国家自然科学基金面上项目“共同富裕视角下乡村产业振兴的长效机制研究”(72274089);江西省社会科学基金项目“江西省“3类县”农村宅基地制度改革成效与推进路径”(23GL10);南昌大学2024年科研训练项目“农村宅基地功能转型下农户生计韧性变化响应研究”


Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in central China considering ‘water-land-energy-carbon’ nexus
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    摘要:

    [目的] 研究中部地区农业水土资源开发利用过程中能源消耗碳排放的时空格局演变规律,揭示其主要驱动因素,为助推中部地区农业低碳化绿色转型发展和实现“双碳”目标提供理论和数据参考。[方法] 基于2010—2022年中部地区6省的社会经济数据,考察农业水土资源利用中能源消耗的碳排放,采用IPCC碳排放系数法测算2010—2022年中部地区农业碳排放量,借助Kaya恒等式和完全分解方法LMDI(logarithmic mean divisia index)加法形式,探讨农业碳排放的驱动因素及其贡献值,运用ArcGIS可视化深入剖析中部各省农业碳排放在时空维度上的演变趋势,并探析水土资源匹配度与农业碳排放之间的关系。[结果] ①2010—2022年中部地区农业碳排放总量呈现先快速上升后波动下降的趋势。农业碳排放的环比增长率经历了阶段性下降演变过程。②农业碳排放强度是促使中部地区农业碳减排的最主要因素,农业水资源经济产出则是导致农业碳排放增长的第一大要素。2010—2022年研究区累计农业碳排放贡献值达562.28×104 t。农业水资源经济产出因素和单位播种面积的农业用水量因素对中部地区农业碳排放的贡献存在正负两个方向的变动。③提高农业水土资源匹配度有助于抑制农业碳排放,但对各省的农业碳排放影响程度存在差异。[结论] 未来应关注水土资源时空匹配问题及其生态环境效应,因地制宜采取差别化的耕作模式,优化配置和改善农业水土资源开发利用方式,促进农业低碳化转型。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolution dynamics of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the development and utilization of agricultural water and land resources in central China were studied to identify the key drving factors and provide theoretical and data reference for promoting low-carbon green transformation and agriculture development in central China, and to achieve the ‘dual carbon’ goal. [Methods] Carbon emissions from energy consumption during utilization of agricultural water and land resources were investigated based on social and economic data from six provinces in central China from 2010 to 2022. The IPCC carbon emission coefficient method was used to measure agricultural carbon emissions in central China from 2010 to 2022. The drivers and contributions of agricultural carbon emissions were discussed based on the Kaya identity and logarithmic mean divisia index. ArcGIS visualization was used to analyze the evolutionary trend of agricultural carbon emissions in central China in the spatiotemporal dimensions, and the relationship between matching degree of water and land resources and agricultural carbon emissions was explored. [Results] ①During 2010—2022, the total agricultural carbon emissions in central China increased rapidly and then fluctuated downward. The growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions experienced a gradual decline during the evolutionary process. ② Agricultural carbon emission intensity was the key factor promoting agricultural carbon emission reduction in central China, and the economic output of agricultural water resources was the primary factor driving growth of agricultural carbon emissions. The cumulative contribution of agricultural carbon emissions during 2010—2022 reached 5.62×106 t. The contributions of economic output factors of agricultural water resources and water consumption per unit sown area to agricultural carbon emissions in central China varied in both positive and negative directions. ③ Improving the matching degree of agricultural water and land resources could facilitate curbing of agricultural carbon emissions; however, the impacts on agricultural carbon emissions in different provinces varied. [Conclusion] In future, attention should be paid to spatiotemporal matching of water and land resources and their eco-environmental effects, adopting different farming modes according to local conditions, optimizing allocation, which would enhance sustainable development and utilization of agricultural water and land resources and promote low-carbon transformation in agriculture.

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肖丽群,刘建生,毛燕玲,姜睿清.基于“水-土-能-碳”关联的中部地区农业碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(4):256-266

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-05
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-15