第一批低碳试点城市土地利用碳排放的脱钩效应与影响因素
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F301.2,X24

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国家自然科学基金青年项目“‘低碳’与‘集约’双重约束下我国城市建设用地利用效率研究:测度与优化”(72004187);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“双碳背景下土地利用碳达峰与碳中和情景预测研究—以低碳试点城市为例”(202310635118);重庆市大学生创新创业训练计划项目“土地利用视角下西南地区城市碳排放时空演变与影响因素研究”(S202410635120)


Decoupling effects and influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions in first batch of low-carbon pilot cities
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    [目的] 探究土地利用碳排放与经济的脱钩关系及其影响因素,为协调城市土地利用碳减排与经济发展的关系提供理论依据。[方法] 以8个中国第一批低碳试点城市(天津、重庆、深圳、厦门、杭州、南昌、贵阳、保定)为研究区,分析2005—2020年试点城市土地利用碳排放的演变趋势,运用Tapio脱钩模型刻画土地利用净碳排放与经济发展的脱钩关系,采用LMDI分解法剖析土地利用净碳排放的影响因素。[结果] ①2005—2020年第一批低碳试点城市整体上土地利用净碳排放量呈现逐年快速增长的趋势,由2005年的7.74×108 t增长至2020年的1.80×109 t。②试点城市整体脱钩指数在研究期内逐步减小,表明经济发展水平的提高对于土地利用碳排放的依赖性呈下降趋势。2015—2020年,天津市土地利用碳排放与经济呈现理想的强脱钩状态,而保定市则呈现不理想的扩张性负脱钩,其余6个城市表现为弱脱钩。由此反映出协调试点城市土地利用碳排放与经济的关系仍有较大的发展空间。③影响土地利用碳排放的正向因素依次为:经济发展水平>土地利用结构>人口密度>土地总面积;负向因素依次为:土地利用经济效率>地类碳排放强度。[结论] 试点城市经济与土地利用碳排放的脱钩状态区域差异较大,且土地利用碳排放的影响因素也有所不同,建议结合影响因素制定差异化的低碳经济发展方案。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The decoupling relationship between land-use carbon emissions and economic development, and the influencing factors were explored, in order to provide a theoretical basis for better aligning urban carbon reduction strategies with economic growth in the first batch of low-carbon pilot cities in China. [Methods] Taking the first batch of 8 low-carbon pilot cities (nemely Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Guiyang and Baoding cities) as the study area, the evolution trend of land-use carbon emissions in the pilot cities from 2005 to 2020 were analyzed. Based on the Tapio decoupling model, the decoupling relationship between land-use net carbon emissions and economic development was explored, and the influencing factors of net carbon emissions from land use were investigated by employing the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method. [Results] ① The net carbon emissions of the first batch of low-carbon pilot cities during 2005—2020 showed a rapid growth trend, increasing from 7.74×108 tons in 2005 to 1.80×109 tons in 2020. ② The overall decoupling index of the pilot cities gradually decreased during the study period, indicating that the dependence of economic development on land-use carbon emissions was on a downward trend. During the period from 2015 to 2020, the land-use carbon emissions of Tianjin City presented a desirable strong decoupling state from the economic development, while Baoding City showed an undesirable expansive negative decoupling state, and the remaining six cities showed a weak decoupling state. This reflected that there were still considerable potential for improvement in coordinating the relationship between land-use carbon emissions and economic development in the pilot cities. ③ Positive factors affecting land-use carbon emissions in descending order were: economic development level > land use structure > population density > total land area; negative factors were ranked as follows: economic efficiency of land use > carbon emission intensity of land type. [Conclusion] The decoupling status and the influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions in pilot cities varied significantly across regions, thus regionally differentiated low-carbon economic development strategies should be formulated in combination with the influencing factors.

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谢甜甜,吴雅,黄棕翰,李贤瑶,刘九畅.第一批低碳试点城市土地利用碳排放的脱钩效应与影响因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(4):294-303

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-03
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-05
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-15