内蒙古自治区森林碳汇核算与生态产品价值实现路径
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X196

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内蒙古自治区社会科学基金项目“内蒙古生态产品价值实现机制创新研究”(2024EY09); 内蒙古自治区教育厅一流学科科研专项(YLXKZX-NCD-015); 内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2023QN07010); 内蒙古自治区社会科学基金项目(2025DY17)


Accounting for forest carbon sequestration and pathways to ecological product value realization in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
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    摘要:

    [目的] 核算内蒙古自治区森林碳汇价值,探究生态产品价值实现路径,为深入理解该区森林碳汇价值变化的内在机理,推动森林生态产品可持续经营管理和价值实现提供理论参考。[方法] 以内蒙古自治区12市(盟)为研究区,以2009—2023年为研究区间,运用固碳速率法、最优价格法、碳税法和固定CO2的造林成本法,对森林碳汇量和价值进行核算与时空演变格局分析,并利用多元回归模型、灰色系统关联度模型对价值影响因素和因子关联度进行测算,进而探索森林碳汇生态产品价值实现路径。[结果] ①内蒙古自治区各市(盟)森林碳汇量均实现显著增长,且以2014年增长最为明显,总增幅大部分介于160.00%~200.00%,乌海、巴彦淖尔和乌兰察布市超过240.00%,鄂尔多斯市所占比例超过50倍。②各市(盟)森林碳汇价值时间上整体呈现增长趋势且以偏中部地区增速最快,空间上呈现“东高西低且东北部最高、中部由南北两端向中心递减、西部由西北向东南递减”的演变格局。③由于各市(盟)地理位置、产业结构、政策导向、林龄结构等的不同,影响因素的作用方式和影响程度具有显著的空间异质性;乌海市、巴彦淖尔市、兴安盟和呼伦贝尔市的因素关联程度较大,阿拉善盟、呼和浩特市和赤峰市的因素关联度较小,关键影响因素包括经济发展状况、降水、林业产值、森林覆盖度和森林投资规模。[结论] 内蒙古森林碳汇量与价值量存在显著的地域分异特征,未来应立足各市(盟)资源禀赋与生态功能定位因地制宜制定碳汇发展政策,探索差异化的森林碳汇产品价值实现模式,以分区精细化管理推动内蒙古森林碳汇产品价值的高效转化与实现。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The forest carbon sink value in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was quantified, and pathways for realizing the value of ecological products were explored, in order to deeply understand the intrinsic mechanism of changes in the carbon sink value of forests in this area and provide theoretical references for promoting the sustainable management and value realization of forest ecological products. [Methods] The study focused on twelve prefecture-level cities (leagues) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, covering the period from 2009 to 2023. A multimetric framework was developed to quantify forest carbon sinks and analyze their spatiotemporal evolution, integrating carbon sequestration rate, optimal pricing, carbon tax, and afforestation cost methods for CO2fixation. In addition, multiple regression models and grey relational analysis were employed to assess influencing factors and the degree of inter-factor association, thereby identifying potential pathways for realizing the value of forest carbon sink-based ecological products. [Results] ① The forest carbon sinks of all prefecture-level cities (leagues) in Inner Mongolia increased significantly, with the most notable growth observed in 2014. The total increase ranged from 160% to 200%, with Wuhai City, Bayan Nur City, and Ulanqab City exceeding 240%, and Ordos experiencing an increase of more than 50-fold. ② The forest carbon sink value in each prefecture-level city (league) showed an overall upward trend, with the fastest growth occurring in the central regions. Spatially, the pattern was characterized by higher values in the east and lower values in the west, with peak values in the northeast, declining from the northern and southern edges toward the center in the midland areas, and from northwest to southeast in the western regions. ③ Differences in geographical location, industrial structure, policy orientation, and forest age structure among the prefecture-level cities (leagues) resulted in significant spatial heterogeneity in the operational mechanisms and intensity of influencing factors. Specifically, Wuhai City, Bayan Nur City, Hinggan League, and Hulunbuir City exhibited stronger inter-factor correlations, while Alxa League, Hohhot City, and Chifeng City showed relatively weaker associations. The primary influencing factors included economic development, precipitation, forestry output value, forest coverage, and the scale of forest investment. [Conclusion] Forest carbon sink volume and value in Inner Mongolia displayed significant regional differentiation. Future policies should formulate carbon sink development strategies tailored to local conditions based on each prefecture-level city’s (league’s) resource endowments and ecological function positioning. Differentiated pathways for realizing forest carbon sink product value should be explored to promote efficient transformation and value realization through region-specific, refined management in Inner Mongolia.

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武振国,潘越明,史主生,李雪敏.内蒙古自治区森林碳汇核算与生态产品价值实现路径[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(5):155-166

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-07
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-07
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-18