干旱区农业生态效率与经济韧性协同权衡识别及其驱动因素
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F323,X322

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新疆维吾尔自治区人才发展基金“天池英才”引进计划(创新领军人才)


Driving factors and identification of trade-off and coordination between agricultural ecological efficiency and economic resilience in arid regions
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    [目的] 探究干旱区农业生态效率与经济韧性协同权衡识别及其驱动因素,为实现区域可持续发展,以及新疆农业发展与生态保护双赢的管理决策提供科学依据。[方法] 测度新疆维吾尔自治区14个地州2010—2022年农业生态效率水平和农业经济韧性,运用Spearman秩相关分析法、生产可能性边界(PPF)和权衡强度指数定量化分析效率与韧性的权衡-协同关系,采用GWR分析不同地区效率-韧性协同权衡关系的影响因素。[结果] ①新疆农业经济韧性时间上呈现快速增长态势,空间上呈现“南部>北部”的分布格局。农业生态效率呈现增长态势,空间上为“南部>北部”的格局。②产出与抵抗力显著协同,产出与恢复力显著权衡,投入-抵抗力与产出-恢复力的PPF曲线形状为“下凹—上凸”形状,且对应组合多数处于最优配置。③各影响因素加强效率与韧性的权衡关系,整体大小表现为:农林水财政支出>财政科技支出>农林牧渔业总产值>环境污染治理投资总额;各影响因素加强效率与韧性的协同关系,从大到小排序为:环境污染治理投资总额>财政科技支出>农林牧渔业总产值>农林水财政支出。[结论] 新疆各地州需要因地制宜制定农业生态效率与农业经济韧性权衡协同发展政策,实现干旱区可持续发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The trade-off and coordination between agricultural ecological efficiency and economic resilience in arid regions and their driving factors were identified, in order to provide a scientific basis for achieving regional sustainable development and win-win management decisions for agricultural development and ecological protection in Xinjiang. [Methods] Agricultural ecological efficiency levels and agricultural economic resilience in 14 prefectures of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2010 to 2022 were measured. Spearman’s rank correlation analysis, production possibility frontier (PPF), and trade-off intensity index were employed to quantitatively analyze the trade-off and coordination relationships between efficiency and resilience. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied to analyze the influencing factors of the efficiency-resilience trade-off and coordination relationships in different regions. [Results] ① The agricultural economic resilience in Xinjiang demonstrated a rapid growth trend over time and a spatial distribution pattern of “south > north”. Agricultural ecological efficiency showed an increasing trend, with a spatial pattern of “south > north”. ② Output and resistance demonstrated significant coordination, while output and recovery exhibited significant trade-off. The PPF curves of input—resistance and output—recovery were “concave-down—convex-up” in shape, with most of the corresponding combinations in their optimal configurations. ③ The trade-off relationship between efficiency and resilience was strengthened by all influencing factors, with the overall order being: fiscal expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water resources > fiscal expenditure on science and technology > total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery> total investment in environmental pollution control. Additionally, the influencing factors enhanced the coordination relationship between efficiency and resilience in the following descending order: total investment in environmental pollution control> fiscal expenditure on science and technology > total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery> fiscal expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water resources. [Conclusion] All prefectures in Xinjiang should formulate region-specific policies for the trade-off and coordination between agricultural ecological efficiency and agricultural economic resilience, thereby achieving sustainable development in arid regions.

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孙宇,黎新伍,黄静文.干旱区农业生态效率与经济韧性协同权衡识别及其驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(5):347-359

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-07
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-18